8 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 Super League prediction & result

Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Referee: Lukas Fahndrich
Full time3 – 3

Final score: FC Thun 3-3 FC Basel 1893.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% FC Thun, 24% draw, 29% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Thun at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Žan Celarassist: Ludwig Thorell
12'
⚽Philip Oteleassist: Abemly Meto Silu Metinho
⚽Brighton Labeau
16'
⚽Nils·Reichmuthassist: Fabio Fehr
39'
43'
Philip Otele
53'
🔁Ludwig Thorellout: giacomo koloto
55'
⚽Žan Celar (pen)
🔁Adam Ilicout: Nico Maier
56'
🔁Nils·Reichmuthout: Patrik Kristal
64'
🔁Mattias Käitout: Nassim Zoukit
64'
68'
🔁Moussa Cisseout: Coleen Louis
68'
🔁Asane Sowout: Kazeem Olaigbe
🔁Furkan Dursunout: Noah Christoffersson
77'
🔁Olivier Mambwaout: Lucien Dähler
77'
⚽Kevin Ruegg (OG)
78'
81'
Coleen Louis
85'
🔁Philip Oteleout: Jonas harder
85'
🔁Kevin Rueggout: Keigo Tsunemoto
Jan Bamert
90+6'

Match stats — FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893

48%Possession52%
15Shots17
3On target7
4Corners5
1.07xG1.83

Goals against chances

FC Thun3 from 1.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Basel 18933 from 1.83 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Thun 4-2-2-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 5N. BürgyD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 14M. KäitM
  • 16J. RothM
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 52Adam IlicM
  • 96B. LabeauF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 15P. KristalM
  • 33M. GutbubF
  • 23M. BürkiD
  • 26N. ChristofferssonF
  • 37L. DählerD
  • 13N. ZoukitM
Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli
FC Basel 1893 4-3-3
  • 1J. OmlinG
  • 27K. RüeggD
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 29M. CisséD
  • 4B. OmeragićM
  • 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 18A. SowF
  • 9Ž. CelarF
  • 7P. OteleF
Substitutes
  • 3N. VouillozD
  • 14A. BačaninM
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 37G. KolotoF
  • 25C. LouisD
  • 22C. MichelinD
  • 11K. OlaigbeF
  • 13M. SalviG
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
Coach: S. Jokanović

Form going into FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893

FC Thun

Super League

  • W5-4away to Lausanne1 November 2026
  • L2-3FC Lugano25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026

FC Basel 1893

Super League

  • L1-2away to FC Lugano1 November 2026
  • D0-0Grasshoppers25 October 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Vaduz11 October 2026
  • L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Thun scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Thun conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
  • FC Basel 1893 did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • FC Basel 1893 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FC Thun134272737-1014
7FC Basel 1893134362125-415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893

  • 9 August 2026FC Basel 1893 4–2 FC ThunSuper League
  • 2 May 2026FC Basel 1893 3–1 FC ThunSuper League
  • 18 April 2026FC Thun 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 1 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
  • 13 September 2025FC Thun 1–3 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 11 January 2025FC Basel 1893 2–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC Thun and FC Basel 1893

FC Thun

GoalsAssists

  • B. Labeau61

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Thun at 47% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Žan Celar 1' for FC Basel 1893, Philip Otele 12' for FC Basel 1893, Brighton Labeau 16' for FC Thun, Nils·Reichmuth 39' for FC Thun, Žan Celar (penalty) 55' for FC Basel 1893, Kevin Ruegg (own goal) 78' for FC Thun. On expected goals it finished 1.07–1.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Thun a 26.7% chance to finish in the top six: 34.3% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 13.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.4%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

For FC Basel 1893 the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 28.3% going in: 43.2% after a win, 27.9% after a draw, 19.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 27.9%.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.