Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 27% draw, 35% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hapoel Beer Sheva at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. MarcianoG
- 2G. MizrahiD
- 4M. VítorD
- 15I. NachmiasD
- 5Pedro AmadorD
- 17A. ForsonM
- 28N. YehoshuaM
- 9Z. AhmedM
- 20J. EastF
- 66I. ZlatanovićF
- 11A. GanahF
- 44D. DiopD
- 3M. BaltaxaD
- 45M. Abu RumiF
- 8M. Kna'anF
- 14Y. MaledeF
- 27Y. StoyanovM
- 90A. UgarrizaF
- 70João VictorF
- 34M. WolffG
- 22A. TzurG
- 97M. CocoD
- 5F. MayemboD
- 4ChicoD
- 32Y. LeliendalD
- 98FalcãoM
- 6A. KraevM
- 35D. OwusuM
- 15R. AlkokinM
- 51O. AltmanM
- 44D. DappaF
- 18T. ArchelD
- 1Dor BenyaminiG
- 27M. BuskilaF
- 14E. KancepolskyM
- 7R. KorineF
- 16D. LeidnerD
- 23A. LemkinM
- 19A. MahamidF
- 21S. PivenD
Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ligat Ha'al
- W5-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva1 November 2026
- W5-2away to Maccabi Haifa26 October 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Jerusalem18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ironi Tiberias10 October 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al
- W2-1Maccabi Haifa2 November 2026
- W3-0away to Hapoel Jerusalem24 October 2026
- W1-0Ironi Tiberias17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Beer Sheva won every one of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv won every one of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 15 May 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 2 May 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 19 January 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 4 October 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 16 August 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–2 Hapoel Tel AvivToto Cup Ligat Al
- 22 April 2025Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–5 Hapoel Beer ShevaState Cup
Leading scorers: Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Beer Sheva
GoalsAssists
- I. Zlatanović50
Hapoel Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- R. Alkokin32
- E. Boateng32
- D. Dappa31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hapoel Tel Aviv won 1–0 at Hapoel Beer Sheva. The model had leaned towards a win for Hapoel Beer Sheva at 38% and given a win for Hapoel Tel Aviv 35%. The goal: Roee alkokin 90+1' for Hapoel Tel Aviv. On expected goals it finished 1.59–2.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Beer Sheva a 20.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 27.4% after a win, 19.5% after a draw, 14.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.3%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.
For Hapoel Tel Aviv the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 18.8% going in: 26.4% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.4%, 7.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel Tel Aviv has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Hapoel Tel Aviv's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva win38%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Hapoel Tel Aviv win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.