28 August 2026, 22:00 UTC

Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Union Santa Fe 4-1 Sarmiento Junin.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Union Santa Fe, 26% draw, 29% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union Santa Fe at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin

Union Santa Fe

  • W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026

Sarmiento Junin

  • W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
  • W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026
  • W2-1Independiente Rivadavia3 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin

  • 26 February 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–3 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 September 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 March 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 8 October 2023Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 15 May 2023Union Santa Fe 0–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 8 September 2022Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin

Union Santa Fe

  • C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists

Sarmiento Junin

  • J. Marabel12 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.