28 August 2026, 22:00 UTC

Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Union Santa Fe 4-1 Sarmiento Junin.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Union Santa Fe, 26% draw, 29% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Union Santa Fe at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Santa Fe99%Draw1%Sarmiento Junin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Julian Contrera
⚽C. Tarragonaassist: E. Giaccone
18'
🔁M. Luna Dialeout: I. Malcorra
23'
43'
Lucas Suárez
46'
🔁J. Contreraout: U. Gimenez
⚽C. Tarragonaassist: I. Malcorra
61'
Ignacio Malcorra
62'
66'
🔁J. Herreraout: P. Magnin
66'
🔁S. Salleout: G. Gonzalez
🔁B. Cuelloout: M. Aguirre
71'
⚽I. Malcorraassist: L. Ayala
74'
🔁L. Menossiout: M. Peresutti
78'
🔁M. Estigarribiaout: E. Ramirez
78'
79'
⚽J. Mavilla
81'
🔁J. Marabelout: Diego Churin
⚽E. Ramirez
84'
89'
🔁J. Mavillaout: E. Gimenez

Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin

49%Possession51%
12Shots11
5On target6
2Corners4
1.29xG0.49

Goals against chances

Union Santa Fe4 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sarmiento Junin1 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union Santa Fe 4-3-1-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 2M. RodriguezD
  • 26J. LuduenaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 11M. Luna DialeM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
  • 19M. EstigarribiaF
Substitutes
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 4M. RochaD
  • 12B. PittonD
  • 44T. FagioliD
  • 32N. GarciaD
  • 29S. VeraM
  • 46S. GrellaM
  • 10I. MalcorraM
  • 34M. PeresuttiM
Coach: Leonardo Madelon
Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 8S. SalleD
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 3L. SuarezD
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 16M. MartinezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 24J. HerreraF
  • 27J. MarabelF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 77N. PasquiniD
  • 20U. GimenezD
  • 6G. ArturiaD
  • 33G. DiazD
  • 29T. SantamariaD
  • 23E. GimenezM
  • 17A. NadruzM
  • 5M. GarciaM
Coach: Facundo Sava

Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin

Union Santa Fe

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
  • L1-2Central Cordoba de Santiago11 August 2026
  • W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026

Sarmiento Junin

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
  • W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026
  • W2-1Independiente Rivadavia3 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026

What these results say

  • Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Union Santa Fe166372424021
9Sarmiento Junin166372324-121

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin

  • 26 February 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–3 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 September 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 March 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 8 October 2023Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 15 May 2023Union Santa Fe 0–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 8 September 2022Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin record →

Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin

Union Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tarragona172

Sarmiento Junin

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marabel145

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union Santa Fe beat Sarmiento Junin 4–1. The model had made a win for Union Santa Fe its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: C. Tarragona 18' for Union Santa Fe, C. Tarragona 61' for Union Santa Fe, I. Malcorra 74' for Union Santa Fe, J. Mavilla 79' for Sarmiento Junin, E. Ramirez 84' for Union Santa Fe. On expected goals it finished 1.29–0.49.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.