Regular Season - 9 · 16 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov Premier League prediction & result

RZD Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lokomotiv 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Lokomotiv, 28% draw, 34% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Lokomotiv 1.59, Krylia Sovetov 1.45.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

62%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lokomotiv at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv5%Draw91%Krylia Sovetov4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nikolay Komlichenko
33'
33'
Nikita Chernov
Daniil Chevardin
41'
44'
Islam Chesnokov
Aleksandr Rudenko
45+1'
45'
🔁Vitaliy Shitovout: Amar Rahmanović
45'
🔁Islam Chesnokovout: Nikita Saltykov
Maksim Nenakhov
48'
⚽Nikolay Komlichenko
53'
59'
Fernando Constanza
Ilya Eremeev
64'
🔁Daniil Chevardinout: Vadim Rakov
66'
67'
⚽Amar Rahmanovićassist: Nikita Saltykov
70'
🔁Maksim Vityugovout: Kirill Stolbov
🔁Nikolay Titkovout: Zelimkhan Bakaev
71'
74'
Amar Rahmanović
80'
🔁Martin Kramaričout: Mihajlo Banjac
Mikhail Galaktionov
80'
🔁Nikolay Komlichenkoout: Sergey Pinyaev
86'
🔁Aleksandr Rudenkoout: Danila Godyaev
86'
86'
🔁Nikolay Rasskazovout: Dominik Oroz

Match stats — Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

56%Possession44%
11Shots18
3On target6
3Corners1

Line-ups

Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 85E. MorozovD
  • 45A. SiljanovD
  • 74D. ChevardinD
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 19A. RudenkoM
  • 77A. MostovoyM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 16D. VeselovG
  • 88M. ShchetininM
  • 11V. RakovF
  • 9S. PinyaevM
  • 99R. MyalkovskiyF
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 63V. GolubevF
  • 47D. GodyaevM
Coach: M. Galaktionov
Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1
  • 80N. KokarevG
  • 15N. RasskazovD
  • 23N. ChernovD
  • 47S. BozhinD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 22Fernando CostanzaM
  • 4Y. GorshkovM
  • 17I. ChesnokovM
  • 8M. VityugovM
  • 10M. KramaričM
  • 73V. ShitovF
Substitutes
  • 20K. StolbovM
  • 97I. AkhmetovM
  • 7M. BanjacM
  • 72Dani FernándezD
  • 39E. FrolovG
  • 3T. GaldamesD
  • 18I. LepskiyD
  • 77D. MakarovM
  • 67Kazbek MukailovF
Coach: S. Bulatov

Form going into Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

Lokomotiv

  • L1-2away to Zenit12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
  • L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
  • L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026

Krylia Sovetov

  • W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
  • D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Lokomotiv9144811-37
9Krylia Sovetov92521314-111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

  • 25 April 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–0 LokomotivPremier League
  • 19 March 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–2 LokomotivCup
  • 31 August 2025Lokomotiv 2–2 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 28 March 2025Krylia Sovetov 5–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 6 October 2024Lokomotiv 1–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 25 November 2023Krylya Sovetov 3–3 Lokomotiv MoscowPremier League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov

Lokomotiv

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Krylia Sovetov

  • I. Oleynikov3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.59 goals for Lokomotiv and 1.45 for Krylia Sovetov; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Nikolay Komlichenko 53' (Lokomotiv), Amar Rahmanović 67' (Krylia Sovetov).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lokomotiv the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lokomotiv against 1.45 for Krylia Sovetov. Lokomotiv's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.99 for Krylia Sovetov.