19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Major League Soccer prediction & result

Subaru Park, Philadelphia

Full time2 – 2

Final score: Philadelphia Union 2-2 Inter Miami.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Philadelphia Union, 18% draw, 24% Inter Miami — fair odds of 1.72, 5.56 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 17 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Philadelphia Union at 58% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Philadelphia Union7%Draw88%Inter Miami5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Vassilevassist: F. Westfield

11'

21'

⚽D. Pinterassist: L. Suarez

26'

⚽L. Messiassist: I. Fray

K. Wagner

43'

50'

S. Reguilon

55'

I. Fray

⚽N. Pierreassist: M. Iloski

58'

•M. Iloski

62'

🔁I. Vassilevout: Q. Sullivan

68'

73'

🔁S. Reguilonout: N. Allen

73'

🔁T. Segoviaout: D. Ayala

🔁B. Damianiout: E. Alladoh

82'

🔁J. Buenoout: A. Bedoya

82'

M. Iloski

87'

E. Alladoh

90+5'

90+9'

🔁D. Pinterout: D. Ruiz

Q. Sullivan

90+13'

C. Sullivan

90+13'

Y. Bright

Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami

43%Possession57%

17Shots5

6On target3

4Corners1

2.59xG1.48

Goals against chances

Philadelphia Union2 from 2.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Inter Miami2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union 4-4-2

18Andre BlakeG
39Frankie WestfieldD
44Neil PierreD
26Nathan HarrielD
27Kai WagnerD
6Cavan SullivanM
21Danley Jean JacquesM
8Jesus BuenoM
19Indiana VassilevM
9Bruno DamianiF
10Milan IloskiF

Substitutes

33Quinn SullivanM
11Alejandro BedoyaM
23Ezekiel AlladohF
76Andrew RickG
5Japhet Sery LarsenD
28Agustin AnelloF
16Ben BenderM
14Jeremy RafanelloM
51Malik JakupovicF

Coach: Ryan Richter

Inter Miami 4-3-3

97Dayne St. ClairG
17Ian FrayD
2Gonzalo LujánD
37Maximiliano FalcónD
3Sergio ReguilónD
42Yannick BrightM
5CasemiroM
8Telasco SegoviaM
10Lionel MessiF
9Luis SuárezF
56Daniel PinterF

Substitutes

32Noah AllenD
22David AyalaM
41David RuízM
34Rocco Ríos NovoG
15Fricio CaicedoD
4Facundo MuraD
88Alexander ShawM
59Preston PlambeckM
54Lovens DelinoisF

Coach: Guillermo Hoyos Angel

Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami