20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez
Full time4 – 3

Final score: Napoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Napoli, 24% draw, 21% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Napoli at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Matteo Politanoassist: Leonardo Spinazzola
1'
27'
⚽Jens Petter Haugeassist: Sondre Fet
⚽Scott McTominayassist: Kevin De Bruyne
41'
Frank Anguissa
48'
Noa Lang
58'
🔁Frank Anguissaout: Stanislav Lobotka
59'
62'
⚽Andreas Helmersenassist: Sondre Fet
⚽Scott McTominayassist: Matteo Politano
75'
76'
🔁Andreas Helmersenout: Ola Brynhildsen
🔁Matteo Politanoout: Mathias Olivera
79'
🔁Noa Langout: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento
79'
🔁Leonardo Spinazzolaout: Sam Beukema
79'
83'
🔁Sondre Auklendout: Ulrik Saltnes
84'
🔁Jostein Gundersenout: Haitam Aleesami
84'
🔁Ole Didrik Blombergout: Joel Mvuka
84'
🔁Fredrik Bjorkanout: Isak Dybvik Maatta
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
86'
⚽Odin Luras Bjortuft (OG)
88'
90+4'
⚽Sondre Fet

Match stats — Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt

43%Possession57%
17Shots15
8On target6
2Corners5
1.57xG2.69

Goals against chances

Napoli4 from 1.57 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bodo/Glimt3 from 2.69 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Napoli 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 13Amir RrahmaniD
  • 16Rafa MarínD
  • 21M. PolitanoM
  • 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
  • 8S. McTominayM
  • 37L. SpinazzolaM
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 70N. LangM
  • 19R. HøjlundF
Substitutes
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 23GiovaneF
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 32V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 20L. LuccaF
  • 5B. BadiashileD
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 14N. ContiniG
Coach: M. Allegri
Bodo/Glimt 4-4-2
  • 12N. HaikinG
  • 20F. SjøvoldD
  • 6J. GundersenD
  • 4O. BjørtuftD
  • 15F. BjørkanD
  • 8S. AuklendM
  • 7P. BergM
  • 19S. FetM
  • 10J. HaugeM
  • 11O. Didrik BlombergF
  • 9A. HelmersenF
Substitutes
  • 17O. BrynhildsenF
  • 16J. KitolanoM
  • 1J. Faye LundG
  • 25I. MäättäD
  • 22J. MvukaM
  • 2V. NielsenD
  • 14U. SaltnesM
  • 5H. AleesamiD
Coach: K. Knutsen

Form going into Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt

Napoli

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-3away to Villarreal13 October 2026
  • L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026

Bodo/Glimt

UEFA Champions League

  • W1-0Borussia Dortmund14 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Bayern München10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
27Napoli4103611-53
25Bodo/Glimt411249-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Napoli beat Bodo/Glimt 4–3. The model had made a win for Napoli its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Matteo Politano 1' for Napoli, Jens Petter Hauge 27' for Bodo/Glimt, Scott McTominay 41' for Napoli, Andreas Helmersen 62' for Bodo/Glimt, Scott McTominay 75' for Napoli, Odin Luras Bjortuft (own goal) 88' for Napoli, Sondre Fet 90+4' for Bodo/Glimt. On expected goals it finished 1.57–2.69.

How the call on Napoli v Bodo/Glimt has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Napoli win55%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Bodo/Glimt win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.