17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

FF Jaro vs Mariehamn Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Project Liv Arena, Pietarsaari
Referee: M. Al-Emara
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FF Jaro 1-1 Mariehamn.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% FF Jaro, 26% draw, 34% Mariehamn — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FF Jaro at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Tuomas Koivisto
⚽Ville Vuorinenassist: Fabian Ostigard Ness
64'
69'
🔁Viktor Widlundout: Sebastian Dahlström
69'
🔁Adam Larssonout: Jelle van der Heyden
🔁Kaius Hardénout: Adam Vidjeskog
75'
79'
⚽Gergő Kocsis (OG)
🔁Ville Vuorinenout: Joni Remesaho
84'
🔁Jonathan Lawsonout: Linus Zetterstrom
84'
🔁Jim Myrevikout: Valde Löfs
84'

Match stats — FF Jaro vs Mariehamn

48%Possession52%
17Shots18
4On target2
6Corners6
1.3xG1.03

Goals against chances

FF Jaro1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mariehamn1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FF Jaro 4-4-2
  • 1S. VitsG
  • 5A. BjonbäckD
  • 6J. BrunellD
  • 4M. OgungbaroD
  • 19F. Østigård NessD
  • 21J. MyrevikM
  • 25G. KocsisM
  • 7J. SkauM
  • 22K. HardénM
  • 23Jonathan LawsonF
  • 91V. VuorinenF
Substitutes
  • 24V. LofsM
  • 42J. RemesahoF
  • 77A. SabriyeF
  • 12Joas SnellmanG
  • 20T. SoderstromD
  • 16A. VidjeskogM
  • 27J. VikstromF
  • 9L. ZetterströmF
  • 8Oliver Kass KawoM
Coach: Jens Karlsson
Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. LundG
  • 27L. RichtnérD
  • 2N. NurmiD
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 31Samson NgulubeD
  • 11J. SvedbergM
  • 20E. PatutM
  • 23V. WidlundM
  • 14Arvid BergvikM
  • 19T. JakobsenM
  • 7A. LarssonF
Substitutes
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 9W. NuñezF
  • 16A. HuttunenM
  • 8J. van der HeydenM
  • 12O. HeinoG
  • 10S. DahlströmM
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 64M. HyvönenM
Coach: R. Björknesjö

Form going into FF Jaro vs Mariehamn

FF Jaro

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Turku PS10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lahti18 September 2026
  • D1-1SJK12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026

Mariehamn

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Ilves10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to SJK18 September 2026
  • W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
  • W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for FF Jaro had two goals or fewer.
  • FF Jaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FF Jaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FF Jaro vs Mariehamn

  • 31 August 2026Mariehamn 2–0 FF JaroFinnish Premier League
  • 23 May 2026FF Jaro 3–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 28 September 2025FF Jaro 2–3 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 6 July 2025FF Jaro 1–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 5 April 2025Mariehamn 0–2 FF JaroFinnish Premier League
  • 17 September 2015FF Jaro 0–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League

The result against the call

FF Jaro and Mariehamn drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FF Jaro at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ville Vuorinen 64' for FF Jaro, Gergő Kocsis (own goal) 79' for Mariehamn. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.03.

How the call on FF Jaro v Mariehamn has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is FF Jaro's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FF Jaro win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Mariehamn win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.