BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: BSK Banja Luka 1-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% BSK Banja Luka, 26% draw, 33% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
BSK Banja Luka at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 31S. Modic
- 7N. Keranovic
- 8B. Eric
- 14O. Radosevic
- 17F. Racic
- 18A. Subic
- 20Z. Kvrzic
- 22D. Cavic
- 30D. Culina
- 32J. Ljubic
- 49S. Marcetic
- 77A. Stupar
- 2N. Antesevic
- 5C. A. Diouf
- 10D. Gavric
- 11D. Radic
- 19M. Bundalo
- 23M. Savic
- 24F. Predragovic
- 26N. Runic
- 1T. Abdulahovic
- 4M. Karamarko
- 5A. Ibrisimovic
- 6A. Pejic
- 7Y. Dabo
- 10M. Sosic
- 23E. Dragovic
- 24A. Rascic
- 28J. Freeman
- 32S. Jovanovic
- 90R. Piloto
- 41A. Jimenez
- 9A. Korora
- 19A. Kulis
- 20G. Troupee
- 22A. Gojak
- 25D. Kelmendi
- 27D. Milosevic
- 29M. Huskovic
- 30M. Karamarko
Form going into BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- L1-3away to Radnik Bijeljina11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BSK Banja Luka | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 7 August 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–1 BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: BSK Banja Luka and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
GoalsAssists
- D. Čavić31
- S. Marčetić20
- D. Dizdarevic11
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
GoalsAssists
- M. Husković20
- Rodrigo Piloto20
- A. Pejić12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
BSK Banja Luka and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for BSK Banja Luka at 41% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Piloto 43' for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, D. Cavic 77' for BSK Banja Luka.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave BSK Banja Luka a 39.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.3% after a win, 41.4% after a draw, 45.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.4%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 36.7% going in: 45.0% after a win, 37.5% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 37.5%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on BSK Banja Luka v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is BSK Banja Luka's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- BSK Banja Luka win41%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win33%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.