17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Ilves vs SJK Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Referee: A. Ropponen
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Ilves 2-0 SJK.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Ilves, 23% draw, 28% SJK — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ilves at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ilves96%Draw4%SJK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
F. Constantini
41'
Samuel Friday James
Anton Popovitch
41'
⚽Teemu Hytönen
43'
⚽Teemu Hytönen (pen)
43'
🔁Teemu Hytönenout: Elias Tamminen
45'
50'
K. Nwanege
61'
🔁Salim Giabo Yussifout: Topias Töllinen
61'
🔁Leon Vesterbackaout: T. Kangaskokko
61'
🔁Apostolos Velliosout: Eetu Mömmö
61'
🔁Elias Mastokangasout: Murilo Henrique de Araujo Santos
🔁Oskari Multalaout: Yiandro Raap
62'
🔁Stanislav Baranovout: Jesse Kilo
70'
🔁Yacouba Sackoout: Hamidou Coulibaly
71'
77'
🔁Kelwin Souza do Nascimentoout: Aziz Cisse
Elias Tamminen
82'
🔁Kalle Walliusout: Franck Régis Ehui Kouakou
85'
⚽Elias Tamminenassist: Goudouss Bamba
90+3'

Match stats — Ilves vs SJK

35%Possession65%
6Shots16
3On target1
0Corners10
1.24xG1.08

Goals against chances

Ilves2 from 1.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
SJK0 from 1.08 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ilves 3-4-2-1
  • 12F. KrkalićG
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 19Goudouss BambaM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 33Y. SackoM
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 9T. HytönenF
Substitutes
  • 11H. CoulibalyF
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 6Y. RaapM
  • 8M. StjopinF
  • 25S. SuvanneD
  • 45E. TamminenF
  • 72Aapeli RäsänenD
  • 27F. KouakouD
Coach: Camilo Speranza
SJK 3-4-1-2
  • 60S. F. JamesG
  • 28K. NwanegeD
  • 2Facundo CostantiniD
  • 5O. VäistöD
  • 6S. YussifM
  • 48A. TraoreM
  • 8A. BoströmM
  • 22L. VesterbackaM
  • 19E. MastokangasM
  • 27A. VelliosF
  • 7KelwinF
Substitutes
  • 35J. ViitalaG
  • 37T. TollinenD
  • 9J. StrengF
  • 1R. PaunioG
  • 14MuriloD
  • 43S. BagayogoD
  • 54T. KangaskokkoF
  • 15E. MömmöF
  • 51A. CisseF
Coach: J. Wiss

Form going into Ilves vs SJK

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Mariehamn10 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Turku PS19 September 2026
  • W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
  • W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
  • L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026

SJK

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Lahti9 October 2026
  • W2-1Mariehamn18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ilves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • SJK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for SJK had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ilves vs SJK

  • 27 June 2026Ilves 2–2 SJKFinnish Premier League
  • 2 May 2026SJK 1–1 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 18 February 2026Ilves 3–1 SJKLeague Cup
  • 3 November 2025Ilves 3–3 SJKFinnish Premier League
  • 4 October 2025SJK 2–1 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 5 July 2025SJK 1–1 IlvesFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Ilves and SJK

Ilves

GoalsAssists

  • T. Hytönen91
  • J. Kanga43
  • E. Tamminen42

SJK

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ilves beat SJK 2–0. The model had made a win for Ilves its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Teemu Hytönen 43' for Ilves, Elias Tamminen 90+3' for Ilves. On expected goals it finished 1.24–1.08.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ilves a 35.5% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 54.0% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 7.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.0%, 18.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ilves v SJK has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 23% / 28%: the biggest move is Ilves's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Ilves win49%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. SJK win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.