22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Getafe vs FC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Coliseum, Getafe
Referee: Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye
Full time2 – 5

Final score: Getafe 2-5 FC Lugano.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Getafe, 36% draw, 32% FC Lugano — fair odds of 3.13, 2.78 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

the draw at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Getafe0%Draw1%FC Lugano99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Azon
2'
3'
⚽A. Ajetiassist: D. Dos Santos
7'
⚽Y. Cimignani
13'
Y. Cimignani
20'
U. Bislimi
B. Mayoral
23'
26'
⚽A. Ajetiassist: D. Moncada
🔁A. Riscoout: N. Gudelj
46'
🔁Davinchiout: J. Mojica
46'
🔁A. Abqarout: R. Terrats
46'
🔁Kiko Femeniaout: M. Satriano
46'
50'
⚽U. Bislimiassist: M. Zanotti
57'
D. Moncada
59'
🔁D. Moncadaout: E. Pihlstrom
59'
🔁Y. Cimignaniout: M. Marques
🔁I. Azonout: E. Unal
66'
66'
🔁A. Ajetiout: K. Behrens
70'
L. Mai
73'
M. Zanotti
⚽B. Mayoral
74'
75'
🔁D. Dos Santosout: B. Karimov
75'
🔁M. Zanottiout: E. Alioski
90+2'
⚽K. Behrens

Match stats — Getafe vs FC Lugano

60%Possession40%
26Shots10
8On target7
15Corners2
2.48xG1.94

Goals against chances

Getafe2 from 2.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Lugano5 from 1.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Getafe 4-4-2
  • 13David SoriaG
  • 17Kiko FemeníaD
  • 5Abdel AbqarD
  • 26Jean Ives ValouD
  • 3DavinchiD
  • 21Andrés GarcíaM
  • 2DjenéM
  • 16Francho SerranoM
  • 28Alberto RiscoM
  • 9Borja MayoralF
  • 20Ivan AzónF
Substitutes
  • 22Johan MojicaD
  • 8Nemanja GudeljM
  • 11Ramón TerratsM
  • 10Martín SatrianoF
  • 19Enes ÜnalF
  • 1Jiří LetáčekG
  • 35Diego FerrerG
  • 4Saba SazonovD
  • 15Sebastián BoselliD
FC Lugano 3-5-2
  • 16David von BallmoosG
  • 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
  • 17Lars Lukas MaiD
  • 3Hannes DelcroixD
  • 46Mattia ZanottiM
  • 25Uran BislimiM
  • 8Anto GrgićM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 21Yanis CimignaniM
  • 30Dereck MoncadaF
  • 9Albian AjetiF
Substitutes
  • 26Martim MarquesD
  • 24Elias PihlströmF
  • 91Kevin BehrensF
  • 2Bekhruz KarimovD
  • 7Ezgjan AlioskiD
  • 28Felix GebhardtG
  • 99Diego MinaG
  • 4Damian KelvinD
  • 14Ahmed KendouciM

Form going into Getafe vs FC Lugano

Getafe

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova15 October 2026

FC Lugano

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W3-2FK Crvena Zvezda15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
31Getafe301237-41
1FC Lugano3300114+79

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Getafe and FC Lugano

Getafe

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • K. Behrens71
  • Y. Cimignani34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano won 5–2 at Getafe. The model had leaned towards a draw at 36% and given a win for FC Lugano 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: I. Azon 2' for Getafe, A. Ajeti 3' for FC Lugano, Y. Cimignani 7' for FC Lugano, A. Ajeti 26' for FC Lugano, U. Bislimi 50' for FC Lugano, B. Mayoral 74' for Getafe, K. Behrens 90+2' for FC Lugano. On expected goals it finished 2.48–1.94.

How the call on Getafe v FC Lugano has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 34% / 36% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 32% / 36% / 32%: the biggest move is Getafe's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Getafe win32%▼ −2
  2. Draw36%=
  3. FC Lugano win32%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.