Flamengo vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 2-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Flamengo, 29% draw, 25% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 46% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Corinthians
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 13DaniloD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 19G. PlataM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 49DyogoG
- 30J. FreitasF
- 21JorginhoM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 44VitãoD
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 20P. MilansD
- 4João PedroD
- 55I. MachadoD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 61DieguinhoM
- 35CharlesM
- 14RanieleM
- 77J. LingardM
- 23Matheus PereiraF
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 80Alex SantanaM
- 7BrenoM
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 46HugoD
Form going into Flamengo vs Corinthians
Flamengo
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
- W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
- W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
Corinthians
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 22 | +31 | 57 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Corinthians
- 13 September 2026Flamengo 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 22 March 2026Corinthians 1–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 1 February 2026Flamengo 0–2 CorinthiansSupercopa do Brasil
- 28 September 2025Corinthians 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 27 April 2025Flamengo 4–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 20 October 2024Corinthians 0–0 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Corinthians
Flamengo
- Pedro15 goals5 assists
- Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.