Flamengo vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 2-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Flamengo, 29% draw, 25% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Corinthians
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 13DaniloD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 19G. PlataM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 49DyogoG
- 30J. FreitasF
- 21JorginhoM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 44VitãoD
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 20P. MilansD
- 4João PedroD
- 55I. MachadoD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 61DieguinhoM
- 35CharlesM
- 14RanieleM
- 77J. LingardM
- 23Matheus PereiraF
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 80Alex SantanaM
- 7BrenoM
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 46HugoD
Form going into Flamengo vs Corinthians
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
- W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
- W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
- W5-1away to Mirassol16 August 2026
Corinthians
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
- W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Corinthians
- 22 March 2026Corinthians 1–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 1 February 2026Flamengo 0–2 CorinthiansSupercopa do Brasil
- 28 September 2025Corinthians 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 27 April 2025Flamengo 4–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 20 October 2024Corinthians 0–0 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Corinthians
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo beat Corinthians 2–1. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lucas Paquetá 48' for Flamengo, Gui Negão 78' for Corinthians, Bruno Henrique 89' for Flamengo.
How the call on Flamengo v Corinthians has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Flamengo's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Flamengo win46%▲ +4
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Corinthians win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.