13 September 2026, 22:30 UTC

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result

BC Place, Vancouver
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 1-2 Austin.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Vancouver Whitecaps, 29% draw, 26% Austin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vancouver Whitecaps at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vancouver Whitecaps0%Draw5%Austin95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽C. Ramirezassist: F. Torres
35'
Jonathan Bell
37'
Joseph Rosales
⚽Ryan Gauld (pen)
40'
Oliver Larraz
45+3'
46'
Guilherme Biro
🔁R. Modestoout: E. Ocampo
46'
⚽B. Whiteassist: R. Gauld
49'
58'
🔁J. Bellout: O. Svatok
60'
⚽C. Ramirezassist: J. Rosales
🔁O. Larrazout: J. Badwal
64'
🔁B. Caicedoout: E. Sabbi
64'
65'
🔁J. Rosalesout: Z. Kolmanic
65'
🔁J. Alastueyout: B. Vazquez
🔁C. Sabalyout: Y. Diaby
71'
Emmanuel Sabbi
80'
🔁A. Cubasout: R. Elloumi
85'
85'
🔁M. Deslerout: B. Hines-Ike
85'
🔁C. Ramirezout: P. Placheta
90+3'
Besard Sabović
90'
Guilherme Biro
90'
Guilherme Biro

Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin

60%Possession40%
20Shots4
6On target2
6Corners0
3.33xG1.05

Goals against chances

Vancouver Whitecaps1 from 3.33 xGless than the chances were worth
Austin2 from 1.05 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
  • 1Y. TakaokaG
  • 70R. ModestoD
  • 2M. LabordaD
  • 33T. BlackmonD
  • 28T. JohnsonD
  • 8O. LarrazM
  • 20A. CubasM
  • 7C. SabalyM
  • 25R. GauldM
  • 14B. CaicedoM
  • 24B. WhiteF
Substitutes
  • 32I. BoehmerG
  • 18E. OcampoD
  • 29M. GherasimencovD
  • 3S. AdekugbeD
  • 23A. CvetkovicM
  • 59J. BadwalM
  • 11E. SabbiF
  • 77Y. DiabyF
  • 19R. ElloumiF
Coach: Jesper Sorensen
Austin
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 15J. BellD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 38E. TorresM
  • 14B. SabovicM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 24J. AlastueyF
Substitutes
  • 12D. LasG
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 23Z. KolmanicD
  • 35M. DjordjevicD
  • 6I. SanchezM
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 77P. PlachetaM
  • 9B. VazquezF

Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin

Vancouver Whitecaps

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Sporting Kansas City30 August 2026
  • W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
  • L0-1Houston Dynamo20 August 2026

Austin

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
  • D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
  • D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026

What these results say

  • Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
  • Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Austin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps3419787434+4064
14Austin34810164265-2334

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin

  • 18 May 2025Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 12 April 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 1 September 2024Austin 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 5 May 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 13 July 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 16 April 2023Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and Austin

Vancouver Whitecaps

GoalsAssists

  • B. White202

Austin

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Austin won 2–1 at Vancouver Whitecaps. The model had leaned towards a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 45% and given a win for Austin 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: C. Ramirez 28' for Austin, B. White 49' for Vancouver Whitecaps, C. Ramirez 60' for Austin. Sent off: Guilherme Biro (Austin) 90'. On expected goals it finished 3.33–1.05.

How the call on Vancouver Whitecaps v Austin has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Vancouver Whitecaps's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Vancouver Whitecaps win45%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Austin win26%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.