Santos vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 2-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Santos, 26% draw, 26% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Cruzeiro
Line-ups
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 15Willian ArãoD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 23RodineiM
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 5João SchmidtM
- 7EvertonM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 32B. RollheiserM
- 11RonyF
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 81S. PierriM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 45LimaM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 6ArthurM
- 42João AlencarD
- 30M. TercerosM
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 23FágnerD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 43João MarceloD
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 8GersonM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 5Zé LucasM
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 11MarquinhosF
- 1CássioG
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 97L. RodríguezF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 12WilliamD
Form going into Santos vs Cruzeiro
Santos
- W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
Cruzeiro
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Cruzeiro
- 13 September 2026Santos 2–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 22 March 2026Cruzeiro 0–0 SantosSerie A
- 7 December 2025Santos 3–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 10 August 2025Cruzeiro 1–2 SantosSerie A
- 14 September 2023Santos 0–3 CruzeiroSerie A
- 6 May 2023Cruzeiro 2–1 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Cruzeiro
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa10 goals2 assists
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
- Kaio Jorge7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.