Napoli vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Napoli 1-0 Bologna.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Napoli, 30% draw, 30% Bologna — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Napoli at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Napoli vs Bologna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Vanja Milinković-SavićG
- 22Giovanni Di LorenzoD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 37Leonardo SpinazzolaD
- 6Billy GilmourM
- 68Stanislav LobotkaM
- 21Matteo PolitanoM
- 11Kevin De BruyneM
- 26Antonio VergaraM
- 19Rasmus HøjlundF
- 2Costantino FavasuliD
- 70Noa LangF
- 20Lorenzo LuccaF
- 17Mathías OliveraD
- 12Claudio PuglieseG
- 14Nikita ContiniG
- 31Sam BeukemaD
- 5Benoît BadiashileD
- 7David NeresF
- 25Massimo PessinaG
- 2Emil HolmD
- 14Torbjørn HeggemD
- 3Arthur TheateD
- 33Juan MirandaD
- 19Lewis FergusonM
- 4Tommaso PobegaM
- 10Federico BernardeschiM
- 8Mikel AmondarainM
- 28Nicolò CambiaghiM
- 91Roberto PiccoliF
- 21Jens OdgaardF
- 18Marco LibraD
- 6Nikola MoroM
- 11Samuel MbangulaF
- 22Jay EnemF
- 1Łukasz SkorupskiG
- 82Matteo FranceschelliG
- 29Lorenzo De SilvestriD
- 5Eivind HellandD
Form going into Napoli vs Bologna
Napoli
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026
Bologna
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 16 | Bologna | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Bologna
- 13 September 2026Napoli 1–0 BolognaSerie A
- 11 May 2026Napoli 2–3 BolognaSerie A
- 22 December 2025Napoli 2–0 BolognaSuper Cup
- 9 November 2025Bologna 2–0 NapoliSerie A
- 7 April 2025Bologna 1–1 NapoliSerie A
- 25 August 2024Napoli 3–0 BolognaSerie A
Leading scorers: Napoli and Bologna
Napoli
- R. Højlund2 goals
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.