Napoli vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Napoli 1-0 Bologna.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Napoli, 30% draw, 30% Bologna — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Napoli vs Bologna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Vanja Milinković-SavićG
- 22Giovanni Di LorenzoD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 37Leonardo SpinazzolaD
- 6Billy GilmourM
- 68Stanislav LobotkaM
- 21Matteo PolitanoM
- 11Kevin De BruyneM
- 26Antonio VergaraM
- 19Rasmus HøjlundF
- 2Costantino FavasuliD
- 70Noa LangF
- 20Lorenzo LuccaF
- 17Mathías OliveraD
- 12Claudio PuglieseG
- 14Nikita ContiniG
- 31Sam BeukemaD
- 5Benoît BadiashileD
- 7David NeresF
- 25Massimo PessinaG
- 2Emil HolmD
- 14Torbjørn HeggemD
- 3Arthur TheateD
- 33Juan MirandaD
- 19Lewis FergusonM
- 4Tommaso PobegaM
- 10Federico BernardeschiM
- 8Mikel AmondarainM
- 28Nicolò CambiaghiM
- 91Roberto PiccoliF
- 21Jens OdgaardF
- 18Marco LibraD
- 6Nikola MoroM
- 11Samuel MbangulaF
- 22Jay EnemF
- 1Łukasz SkorupskiG
- 82Matteo FranceschelliG
- 29Lorenzo De SilvestriD
- 5Eivind HellandD
Form going into Napoli vs Bologna
Napoli
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026
Bologna
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
What these results say
- Napoli failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Napoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Napoli conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Bologna
- 11 May 2026Napoli 2–3 BolognaSerie A
- 22 December 2025Napoli 2–0 BolognaSuper Cup
- 9 November 2025Bologna 2–0 NapoliSerie A
- 7 April 2025Bologna 1–1 NapoliSerie A
- 25 August 2024Napoli 3–0 BolognaSerie A
The result against the call
Napoli beat Bologna 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Napoli at 40%. The goal: S. Lobotka 66' for Napoli. On expected goals it finished 1.81–0.25.