Mirassol vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 2-2 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Mirassol, 30% draw, 29% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 41% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Vitoria
Line-ups
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 44GabrielD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 80WallissonM
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 10ChicoM
- 33EduardoM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 7ShaylonM
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 5JapaM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 12Victor LuísD
- 18EliasD
- 17FernandinhoF
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 2E. BrítezD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 33ErickM
- 95CaíqueM
- 88Zé VitorM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 69Wanderson Estrela OliveiraD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 7MarinhoF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 3Darlan Silva DutraD
Form going into Mirassol vs Vitoria
Mirassol
- W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026
- D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
Vitoria
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Vitoria
- 13 September 2026Mirassol 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 22 March 2026Vitoria 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 29 November 2025Vitoria 2–0 MirassolSerie A
- 26 July 2025Mirassol 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 1 September 2023Vitoria 0–0 MirassolSerie B
- 19 May 2023Mirassol 2–0 VitoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Vitoria
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Vitoria
- Rene8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.