La Roche VF vs Aubagne Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: La Roche VF 3-1 Aubagne.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% La Roche VF, 27% draw, 20% Aubagne — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
La Roche VF at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into La Roche VF vs Aubagne
La Roche VF
Ligue 3
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
Aubagne
Ligue 3
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 27 |
| 17 | Aubagne | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
La Roche VF beat Aubagne 3–1. The model had made a win for La Roche VF its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: B. Tafni 16' for Aubagne, D. Bangoura 53' for La Roche VF, T. Allemand 56' for La Roche VF, M. Samb 71' for La Roche VF. Sent off: K. Cisse (Aubagne) 90+4'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.