Fluminense vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Fluminense, 22% draw, 16% Palmeiras — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 62% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Fluminense
- D1-1away to Botafogo9 August 2026
- D0-0Bahia30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
Palmeiras
- D0-0Internacional9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
- 26 February 2026Palmeiras 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 July 2025Fluminense 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 December 2024Palmeiras 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 25 July 2024Fluminense 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
- 3 December 2023Palmeiras 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Palmeiras
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.