Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Gremio.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% Atletico Mineiro, 16% draw, 13% Gremio — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 71% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio
Atletico Mineiro
- D2-2away to Remo8 August 2026
- W2-1away to Palmeiras26 July 2026
- D1-1Bahia21 July 2026
Gremio
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 39 |
| 16 | Gremio | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio
- 26 February 2026Gremio 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 17 August 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–3 GremioSerie A
- 29 March 2025Gremio 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 9 October 2024Atletico Mineiro 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 1 September 2024Gremio 2–3 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 26 November 2023Atletico Mineiro 3–0 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Gremio
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.