Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Corinthians, 24% draw, 27% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Corinthians at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
Corinthians
- W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
Cruzeiro
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
- 25 February 2026Cruzeiro 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 14 December 2025Corinthians 1–2 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
- 11 December 2025Cruzeiro 0–1 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 23 November 2025Cruzeiro 3–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 23 July 2025Corinthians 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 20 November 2024Corinthians 2–1 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Corinthians and Cruzeiro
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
- Kaio Jorge7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.