Chapecoense vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Chapecoense 3-3 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Chapecoense, 26% draw, 47% Bahia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chapecoense vs Bahia
Chapecoense
- L1-2away to Coritiba8 August 2026
- D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
- L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
Bahia
- D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Bahia
- 17 July 2026Bahia 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 1 October 2022Chapecoense 3–1 BahiaSerie B
- 14 June 2022Bahia 0–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 24 October 2021Bahia 3–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 4 July 2021Chapecoense 0–2 BahiaSerie A
- 7 November 2019Bahia 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Bahia
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Bahia
- Luciano Juba9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.