Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 Verl.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Fortuna Düsseldorf, 27% draw, 27% Verl — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl
Line-ups
- 22L. LordG
- 2S. van der SlootD
- 15T. OberdorfD
- 4L. BornscheinD
- 7E. WekesserD
- 6A. MüllerM
- 38E. ArdenM
- 8J. HendrixM
- 10P. FörsterM
- 34A. SlimaniF
- 24F. SchleusenerF
- 18M. GoncalvesM
- 23F. GerezgiherF
- 27J. PaulinaF
- 1L. RießG
- 28S. RischD
- 25M. ZimmermannD
- 14J. ConsbruchM
- 5Y. BouchamaM
- 16M. BengerM
- 1T. SchlieckG
- 34Janne BernerD
- 22N. KönigD
- 5Nick SeidelD
- 19N. KijewskiD
- 8D. WaidnerM
- 6J. EzeM
- 21M. ClausenM
- 30A. MešanovićM
- 20A. LeipoldM
- 25T. HeikeF
- 32F. PekruhlG
- 17Y. OttoM
- 14P. LehmannD
- 11M. KaubeM
- 29Emmanuel BambaM
- 2Raphael AraoyeD
- 23K. RabihićF
- 18F. WessigM
- 24D. MartinovićF
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 16 |
| 17 | Verl | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Verl drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tim Christopher Oberdorf 38' for Fortuna Düsseldorf, Tim Heike 45' for Verl, Jorrit Hendrix 46' for Fortuna Düsseldorf, Janne Berner 55' for Verl.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Düsseldorf a 32.3% chance to finish in the top four: 36.2% after a win, 28.3% after a draw, 26.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.3%, 4 points lower than before the match.
For Verl the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.7% going in: 23.7% after a win, 19.0% after a draw, 15.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 19.0%.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fortuna Düsseldorf v Verl has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Fortuna Düsseldorf's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf win46%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Verl win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.