13 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln 3. Liga prediction & result

Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen
Referee: Niclas Rose
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 Fortuna Köln.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Rot-Weiß Essen, 29% draw, 21% Fortuna Köln — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rot-Weiß Essen at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rot-Weiß Essen99%Draw1%Fortuna Köln0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Neo Telle
⚽Marek Janssenassist: Marvin Obuz
20'
Janne sietan
40'
Uwe Koschinat
40'
41'
David Haider Kamm Al-Azzawe
45'
🔁Neo Telleout: Nico Thier
59'
🔁Jannik Mauseout: Enzo Wirtz
Marek Janssen
68'
🔁Marek Janssenout: Jaka Cuber Potocnik
71'
🔁Dickson Abiamaout: Lucas Brumme
72'
76'
🔁Bennit Brögerout: Cedric Harenbrock
76'
🔁Romeo Aigbekaenout: Hamadi Al Ghaddioui
🔁Marvin Obuzout: Aiman Dardari
80'
🔁Noah Peschout: Ruben Seyram Reisig
80'
⚽Jaka Cuber Potocnikassist: Semir telalovic
82'
85'
🔁Tom Geerkensout: Timo Bornemann
🔁Semir telalovicout: Luca Bazzoli
88'

Match stats — Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln

60%Possession40%
18Shots8
7On target0
6Corners4

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. GolzG
  • 2M. KostkaD
  • 15Ben Vincent HüningD
  • 23J. Ríos AlonsoD
  • 19F. BouebariD
  • 22J. SietanM
  • 11Noah PeschM
  • 10M. ObuzM
  • 17S. TelalovićM
  • 18D. AbiamaM
  • 20M. JanssenF
Substitutes
  • 9J. PotočnikF
  • 7Aiman DardariF
  • 14L. BrummeF
  • 32L. BazzoliD
  • 36J. GnagnonD
  • 16R. ReisigM
  • 33Eric VerstappenG
  • 35F. WienandG
  • 26E. ÇelebiD
Coach: U. Koschinat
Fortuna Köln 4-3-1-2
  • 1L. WinklerG
  • 31Neo TelleD
  • 15David Haider Kamm Al-AzzaweD
  • 5Seymour FungerD
  • 3M. FischerD
  • 6T. GeerkensM
  • 11G. StrauchM
  • 20A. StanilewiczM
  • 38Bennit BrögerM
  • 37J. MauseF
  • 30Romeo AigbekaenF
Substitutes
  • 19T. BornemannF
  • 27Sebastian Brechmann KevinD
  • 14C. HarenbrockM
  • 2Kevin KrummeD
  • 23D. SavicM
  • 7N. ThierM
  • 9E. WirtzF
  • 18H. Al GhaddiouiF
  • 25B. ZichG
Coach: M. Mink

Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln

Rot-Weiß Essen

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Preußen Münster9 October 2026

Fortuna Köln

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0FC Saarbrücken10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rot-Weiß Essen138322113+827
19Fortuna Köln132471016-610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln

  • 12 July 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 5–0 Fortuna KölnFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 March 2022Fortuna Köln 3–3 Rot-Weiß EssenRegionalliga - West
  • 29 August 2021Rot-Weiß Essen 2–1 Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
  • 7 March 2021Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
  • 10 October 2020Fortuna Köln 1–1 Rot-Weiß EssenRegionalliga - West

The result against the call

Rot-Weiß Essen beat Fortuna Köln 2–0. The model had made a win for Rot-Weiß Essen its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Marek Janssen 20' for Rot-Weiß Essen, Jaka Cuber Potocnik 82' for Rot-Weiß Essen.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rot-Weiß Essen a 55.1% chance to finish in the top four: 58.7% after a win, 53.1% after a draw, 47.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.7%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Fortuna Köln the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.7% going in: 5.0% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.8%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rot-Weiß Essen v Fortuna Köln has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 29% / 21%: the biggest move is Rot-Weiß Essen's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Rot-Weiß Essen win50%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Fortuna Köln win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.