Samgurali vs Spaeri Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Samgurali 0-0 Spaeri.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Samgurali, 25% draw, 29% Spaeri — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Samgurali at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samgurali vs Spaeri
Line-ups
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 22G. GogiaD
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 18G. MeparishviliD
- 39RyanD
- 28Cláudio CebolinhaF
- 15Gean CarlosF
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 29nika manjgaladzeD
- 1B. PutkaradzeG
- 22N. ChagunavaD
- 20N. KentchadzeD
- 31G. BunturiD
- 14G. SamkharadzeD
- 8S. MaisuradzeD
- 6T. AskuravaM
- 19G. TsirdavaF
- 10Tamaz TsetskhladzeM
- 7S. GegiadzeD
- 17L. KokhreidzeF
- 23N. ChomakhidzeG
- 24Z. GolubianiM
- 25R. InjgiaF
- 26B. JibrilF
- 3L. KachibaiaD
- 13S. MathenjwaD
- 2giorgi pirtakhiaD
- 5T. TsalughelashviliM
- 30Z. BasilashviliF
Form going into Samgurali vs Spaeri
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi24 October 2026
- W2-0Meshakhte17 October 2026
- W3-0Gagra11 October 2026
Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga
- D0-0Gagra23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi18 October 2026
- D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 39 |
| 8 | Spaeri | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samgurali vs Spaeri
- 22 August 2026Spaeri 3–4 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 20 July 2026Spaeri 0–1 SamguraliFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2026Samgurali 0–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 16 March 2026Spaeri 4–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
The result against the call
Samgurali and Spaeri drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Samgurali at 46% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Samgurali a 4.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 3.7% after a draw, 8.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.7%.
For Spaeri the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 98.3% going in: 95.7% after a win, 99.2% after a draw, 99.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 99.2%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Samgurali v Spaeri has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 24% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Spaeri's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Samgurali win46%▲ +1
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Spaeri win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.