Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 23% draw, 18% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70I. EgribayatG
- 13P. PereiraD
- 6D. GoutasD
- 4Z. ZuzekD
- 77A. DursunD
- 35O. UlgunM
- 42O. DiabateM
- 10F. TongyaM
- 14A. TraoreF
- 20S. KoitaF
- 7T. GouveiaF
- 23G. AkkanG
- 90M. BaltaciD
- 2Thalisson KelvenD
- 88F. UzumD
- 3H. AydarD
- 8E. KemalogluM
- 52G. ErdemM
- 48S. UcanM
- 45P. MartorF
- 1E. TaskiranG
- 53O. OvacikliD
- 4A. GerxhaliuD
- 22M. YumluD
- 18N. MujakicD
- 15G. GiorbelidzeD
- 99M. FettahogluM
- 42E. OwusuM
- 6B. BaiyeM
- 65M. RodriguezM
- 10E. TozluF
- 31M. OrbanicG
- 2F. EboseleD
- 3Y. KirtayD
- 23C. BayrakD
- 8S. AkgunM
- 5M. Akpinar
- 20M. CardosoF
- 19I. DiabateF
- 90N. AkhundzadeF
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
- W2-1Fenerbahçe15 August 2026
Erzurumspor FK
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
- L0-3away to Amed16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK
- 12 February 2025Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 15 September 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 21 April 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 3 December 2023Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 7 May 2023Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
The result against the call
Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Erzurumspor FK drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 59% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Tozlu 55' for Erzurumspor FK, A. Traore 66' for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. On expected goals it finished 0.80–0.97.