Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 23% draw, 18% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 59% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70I. EgribayatG
- 13P. PereiraD
- 6D. GoutasD
- 4Z. ZuzekD
- 77A. DursunD
- 35O. UlgunM
- 42O. DiabateM
- 10F. TongyaM
- 14A. TraoreF
- 20S. KoitaF
- 7T. GouveiaF
- 23G. AkkanG
- 90M. BaltaciD
- 2Thalisson KelvenD
- 88F. UzumD
- 3H. AydarD
- 8E. KemalogluM
- 52G. ErdemM
- 48S. UcanM
- 45P. MartorF
- 1E. TaskiranG
- 53O. OvacikliD
- 4A. GerxhaliuD
- 22M. YumluD
- 18N. MujakicD
- 15G. GiorbelidzeD
- 99M. FettahogluM
- 42E. OwusuM
- 6B. BaiyeM
- 65M. RodriguezM
- 10E. TozluF
- 31M. OrbanicG
- 2F. EboseleD
- 3Y. KirtayD
- 23C. BayrakD
- 8S. AkgunM
- 5M. Akpinar
- 20M. CardosoF
- 19I. DiabateF
- 90N. AkhundzadeF
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
- W2-1Fenerbahçe15 August 2026
Erzurumspor FK
- L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
- L0-3away to Amed16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Erzurumspor FK | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK
- 28 August 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 12 February 2025Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 15 September 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 21 April 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 3 December 2023Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 7 May 2023Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Erzurumspor FK
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Erzurumspor FK
- E. Tozlu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.