Kocaelispor vs Amed Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Kocaelispor 2-0 Amed.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Kocaelispor, 32% draw, 35% Amed — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 35% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kocaelispor vs Amed
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
- 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
- 4Tanguy ZoukrouD
- 5Emir OrtakayaD
- 21Massadio HaïdaraD
- 14ShowM
- 11Gonçalo SousaM
- 10Berkan KutluM
- 20Mahamadou SusohoM
- 32Makana BakuM
- 7Dan AgyeiF
- 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
- 6Matej MaglicaD
- 27Ege BilimM
- 26Metehan AltunbaşF
- 23Onurcan PiriG
- 3Muharrem CinanD
- 41Onur ÖztongaD
- 17Arda OzyarF
- 19Haydar KarataşM
- 40Alban LafontG
- 7Ermal KrasniqiD
- 21Mehmet YeşilD
- 4David Robert BatesD
- 5Lumbardh DellovaD
- 91Dia SabaM
- 22Rayan RavelosonM
- 6Cem ÜstündagM
- 11Yira Collins SorM
- 10Samuel BalletF
- 99Gift OrbanF
- 17Umut MeraşD
- 18Gökhan GülM
- 45Mbaye DiagneF
- 93Rayan LutinM
- 8Furkan SoyalpM
- 27Burak BozanG
- 33Amadou CisséD
- 3Miraç AcerD
- 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
Form going into Kocaelispor vs Amed
Kocaelispor
- L0-2away to Başakşehir16 August 2026
Amed
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 | Amed | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Amed
- 24 August 2026Kocaelispor 2–0 AmedSüper Lig
- 8 February 2025Kocaelispor 1–0 Amed1. Lig
- 2 September 2024Amed 3–0 Kocaelispor1. Lig
- 24 March 2021Kocaelispor 1–2 Amed2. Lig
- 18 November 2020Amed 3–0 Kocaelispor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Amed
Kocaelispor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Amed
- G. Orban6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.