Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Arda Kardzhali 2-3 Botev Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Arda Kardzhali, 28% draw, 24% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Arda Kardzhali at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 6V. PopovD
- 44A. TraoreD
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 21V. VelevD
- 10S. KovachevM
- 80L. KotevM
- 8D. YankovM
- 99B. KaragarenM
- 91S. IvanovM
- 16P. BachevF
- 4D. IdowuM
- 9G. Nikolov
- 11A. Kabov
- 18S. VasilevD
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 39A. VutovM
- 29D. NaumovG
- 82V. MendesD
- 87S. PetrovD
- 4N. SoldoD
- 27B. HeinD
- 77Lucas AraujoM
- 10A. ChandarovM
- 66C. MeottiM
- 19M. RodriguesM
- 90S. KaluM
- 13S. TsonovF
- 1H. Slavkov
- 15B. KostovD
- 20T. AwanyD
- 22M. SengerD
- 16V. Vidolov
- 7N. Iliev
- 23D. TonevM
- 28H. JocuM
- 88W. ChimezieF
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026
- W3-1Lokomotiv Sofia17 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
Botev Plovdiv
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Levski Sofia30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Vratsa24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ludogorets15 August 2026
- W3-2Spartak Varna10 August 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna1 August 2026
What these results say
- Arda Kardzhali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 21 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
- 26 June 2026Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Arda KardzhaliFriendlies Clubs
- 12 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 26 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 2 December 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 4 August 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–5 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Leading scorers: Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
GoalsAssists
- B. Karagaren11
- S. Kovachev10
- A. Kabov10
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Plovdiv won 3–2 at Arda Kardzhali. The model had leaned towards a win for Arda Kardzhali at 48% and given a win for Botev Plovdiv 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Tsonov 20' for Botev Plovdiv, S. Tsonov 36' for Botev Plovdiv, A. Chandarov 52' for Botev Plovdiv, V. Velev 79' for Arda Kardzhali, A. Vutov 83' for Arda Kardzhali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.