5 September 2026, 21:30 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico Mineiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 33% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sao Paulo at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sao Paulo99%Draw1%Atletico Mineiro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Gustavo Santana
35'
46'
🔁K. Castanoout: Vitor Hugo
46'
🔁Bernardout: Fred
46'
🔁Reinierout: M. Cassierra
🔁Danielzinhoout: Pablo Maia
63'
🔁G. Santanaout: Jonathan Calleri
63'
🔁Wendellout: Iago Borduchi
64'
⚽Lucianoassist: Artur
67'
⚽Iago Borduchiassist: Lucas Ramon
69'
70'
🔁Alexsanderout: A. Minda
🔁Arturout: Djhordney
81'
81'
🔁Victor Hugoout: Gustavo Scarpa
🔁Lucianoout: Ferreira
85'
Djhordney Ferreira
90+1'
90+4'
Tomás Cuello

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro

52%Possession48%
23Shots4
5On target0
16Corners2
1.78xG0.65

Goals against chances

Sao Paulo2 from 1.78 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atletico Mineiro0 from 0.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 22D. DuarteD
  • 5Robert ArboledaD
  • 35SabinoD
  • 19Lucas RamonM
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 8Marcos AntonioM
  • 18WendellM
  • 37ArturF
  • 43G. SantanaF
  • 10LucianoF
Substitutes
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 2R. ToloiD
  • 12Iago BorduchiD
  • 80CaulyM
  • 28NewtonM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 48DjhordneyM
  • 11FerreiraF
  • 17Andre SilvaF
Coach: Junior Dorival
Atletico Mineiro 3-4-2-1
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 2NatanaelD
  • 40VitaoD
  • 21A. FrancoD
  • 28CuelloM
  • 15K. CastanoM
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 6R. LodiM
  • 30Victor HugoF
  • 11BernardF
  • 19ReinierF
Substitutes
  • 46Pedro CobraG
  • 31RobertG
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 23A. PreciadoD
  • 36K. PasciniD
  • 53Pedro LemosD
  • 7FredM
  • 10Gustavo ScarpaM
  • 39M. CisseM
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

Form going into Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro

Sao Paulo

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
  • D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
  • L1-2Santos29 July 2026

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
  • W3-0Gremio16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Remo8 August 2026
  • W1-0RB Bragantino29 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sao Paulo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo34128143939044
7Atletico Mineiro35149124440+451

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro

  • 18 March 2026Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 24 August 2025Sao Paulo 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 6 April 2025Atletico Mineiro 0–0 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 24 November 2024Sao Paulo 2–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 13 September 2024Atletico Mineiro 0–0 Sao PauloCopa Do Brasil
  • 29 August 2024Sao Paulo 0–1 Atletico MineiroCopa Do Brasil

The full Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro record →

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Atletico Mineiro

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sao Paulo beat Atletico Mineiro 2–0. The model had made a win for Sao Paulo its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luciano 67' for Sao Paulo, Iago Borduchi 69' for Sao Paulo. On expected goals it finished 1.78–0.65.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.