FK Jablonec vs Brighton UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: FK Jablonec 0-0 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% FK Jablonec, 23% draw, 59% Brighton — fair odds of 5.56, 4.35 and 1.69.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Brighton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jan HanušG
- 18Martin CedidlaD
- 4Nemanja TekijaškiD
- 15Dušan PavlovićD
- 20Jiří SlámaD
- 13Richard SedláčekM
- 6Nelson OkekeM
- 7Vakhtang ChanturishviliM
- 17Saidou Alioum MoubarakM
- 21Matěj PolidarM
- 9Antonín RůsekF
- 25Sebastian NebylaM
- 36Garang KuolM
- 24Dominik HollýM
- 14Daniel SoučekD
- 19Jan ChramostaF
- 99Klemen MihelakG
- 57Filip NovákD
- 31Evzen MalyD
- 8Filip ZorvanM
- 1Bart VerbruggenG
- 20CostinhaD
- 30Michael SvobodaD
- 21Olivier BoscagliD
- 3Jaouen HadjamD
- 13Pascal GroßM
- 35Malick YalcouyéM
- 33Matt O'RileyM
- 8Jack HinshelwoodM
- 15Ibrahim OsmanM
- 10Georginio RutterF
- 44Luka VuškovićD
- 14Chema AndrésM
- 26Yasin AyariM
- 12Promise DavidF
- 24Ferdi KadıoğluD
- 38Tom McGillG
- 61Steven HallG
- 5Lewis DunkD
- 50Shane NtiM
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Brighton
FK Jablonec
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L2-3away to SC Freiburg15 October 2026
Brighton
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W4-0Kauno Žalgiris15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
FK Jablonec and Brighton drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Brighton at 59% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.73–1.42.
How the call on FK Jablonec v Brighton has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 21% / 24% / 55% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 18% / 23% / 59%: the biggest move is Brighton's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- FK Jablonec win18%▼ −3
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Brighton win59%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often FK Jablonec's most recent league matches and Brighton's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.