Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Ghazl El Mehalla 2-1 Al Ittihad Alexandria.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Ghazl El Mehalla, 32% draw, 43% Al Ittihad Alexandria — fair odds of 4.00, 3.13 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Ittihad Alexandria at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Amer AmerG
- 23F. Nechat DjabriD
- 3Ahmed El AashD
- 5Abdel Fattah ShetaD
- 12Yehia ZakariaD
- 20M. TouréM
- 17Abdel Rahman OsamaM
- 22Ahmed EtmanM
- 44A. YasserM
- 30Amr GomaaM
- 11Mohamed Salem EkbadF
- 15Ahmed GamalD
- 4Ahmed ShoushaD
- 25Mohamed KokoG
- 63Abdel Kader YehiaF
- 39A. EmadD
- 14Abdel Rahman EmadM
- 8Moaz Abdel SalamM
- 9R. ArfaouiF
- 99Hazem MohamedF
- 1Sobhi SolimanG
- 24Momen AwadD
- 7Mohamed Mostafa MidoD
- 5Mostafa IbrahimD
- 30K. MosaadD
- 14Mohamed FakhryM
- 23I. SaviourM
- 8Mohamed ToniM
- 80Joseph ArumalaM
- 22Nour AlaaM
- 10Hossam HassanF
- 44K. SemakulaD
- 35Pascal PhiriF
- 20Mazen OsamaD
- 18J. EbukaF
- 21Ahmed HamdiM
- 25Mahmoud EmadM
- 16Ahmed El ArabiG
- 4Islam AbdallahD
- 11Youssry WahidF
Form going into Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria
Ghazl El Mehalla
Premier League
- L0-1away to Smouha SC12 October 2026
- L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
- L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026
Al Ittihad Alexandria
Premier League
- W2-1El Gouna FC13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
- W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria
- 18 May 2026Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 2 March 2026Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 10 May 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 21 December 2024Ghazl El Mehalla 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 31 March 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 2–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 30 November 2022Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–2 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
Leading scorers: Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad Alexandria
Ghazl El Mehalla
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Al Ittihad Alexandria
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Hassan40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ghazl El Mehalla beat Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Ittihad Alexandria at 43% and given a win for Ghazl El Mehalla 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ashraf Fattah Abdel Sheta 31' for Ghazl El Mehalla, Amr Gomaa 45+2' for Ghazl El Mehalla, Hossam Hassan 47' for Al Ittihad Alexandria. On expected goals it finished 1.26–0.96.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ghazl El Mehalla a 65.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 49.9% after a win, 64.8% after a draw, 73.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.9%, 15.4 points lower than before the match.
For Al Ittihad Alexandria the question was the chance to finish in the top six: 64.7% after a win, 51.0% after a draw, 44.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 44.4%.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Ghazl El Mehalla v Al Ittihad Alexandria has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 28% / 32% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 32% / 43%: the biggest move is Ghazl El Mehalla's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Ghazl El Mehalla win25%▼ −3
- Draw32%=
- Al Ittihad Alexandria win43%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.