21 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Al Ahly vs Olympic El Qanah Premier League prediction & result

Cairo International Stadium, Cairo
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Al Ahly 3-3 Olympic El Qanah.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Al Ahly, 28% draw, 19% Olympic El Qanah — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Ahly at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Ahly0%Draw5%Olympic El Qanah95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Omar El Saeeyassist: Mohamed Hany
18'
32'
⚽Mahmoud Hanyassist: Mohamed Sadek
⚽Ibrahim Samy (OG)
43'
45'
🔁mawuli wayoout: Mohamed Hamdy Zaki
54'
⚽Hazem Abosena
62'
Mahmoud Behiry
🔁Zizo Sayedout: Mohamed Magdy Afsha
72'
🔁Emam Ashourout: Hussein El Shahat
72'
79'
🔁Mahmoud Behiryout: Momen Ahmed Rady
80'
⚽Yassin Marei (OG)
🔁Monsef Bakrarout: Ali Mahmoud
82'
82'
🔁Hazem Abosenaout: Mohamed Hassan
🔁Omar El Saeeyout: S. Benjdida
82'
89'
🔁Mahmoud Hanyout: Mohamed Diab
⚽Achraf Dari
90+3'
Hussein El Shahat
90+6'

Match stats — Al Ahly vs Olympic El Qanah

57%Possession43%
12Shots8
5On target4
7Corners2
1xG0.44

Goals against chances

Al Ahly3 from 1.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
Olympic El Qanah3 from 0.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Ahly 4-2-3-1
  • 31Mostafa ShobeirG
  • 30Mohamed HanyD
  • 3A. DariD
  • 2Yassin MareiD
  • 24Tawfik MohamedD
  • 15Omar El SaeeyM
  • 13Marwan AttiaM
  • 25ZizoM
  • 22Emam AshourM
  • 17A. BencharkiM
  • 10M. BakrarF
Substitutes
  • 5Hady ReyadD
  • 12Akram TawfikM
  • 14Hussein El ShahatM
  • 1Mohamed El ShenawyG
  • 7Taher MohamedF
  • 28Karim FouadD
  • 21Ali MahmoudM
  • 19Mohamed Magdi KafshaM
  • 9S. BenjdidaF
Coach: L. Ammouta
Olympic El Qanah 4-2-3-1
  • 16Mohamed ShaabanG
  • 30Ossama FathyD
  • 5Ibrahim SamyD
  • 19Mohamed El ShebiniD
  • 15Mohab SamyD
  • 20H. IbrahimM
  • 8Mahmoud BehiryM
  • 18M. WayoM
  • 33Mohamed SadekM
  • 10M. HanyM
  • 9Hazem Abou SenaF
Substitutes
  • 25Mostafa HamadaM
  • 11Mohamed Hamdy ZakiF
  • 27Ahmed AliM
  • 22Mohamed HassanF
  • 24Mohamed DiabD
  • 13Mohamed HozianD
  • 1Mostafa MahmoudG
  • 80R. NajjarineF
  • 6Momen RadyM
Coach: Abdelnaser Mohamed

Form going into Al Ahly vs Olympic El Qanah

Al Ahly

Premier League

  • W2-0away to Zamalek SC11 October 2026
  • W2-0Abu Qair Semad15 September 2026
  • D1-1away to El Mokawloon9 September 2026

Olympic El Qanah

Premier League

  • D1-1Al Masry11 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Masr17 September 2026
  • D1-1El Geish7 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Al Ahly8620156+920
13Olympic El Qanah81521012-28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Ahly and Olympic El Qanah

Al Ahly

GoalsAssists

  • Zizo32
  • A. Bencharki20

Olympic El Qanah

GoalsAssists

  • M. Wayo30
  • Hazem Abou Sena21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Ahly and Olympic El Qanah drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Ahly at 53% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Omar El Saeey 18' for Al Ahly, Mahmoud Hany 32' for Olympic El Qanah, Ibrahim Samy (own goal) 43' for Al Ahly, Hazem Abosena 54' for Olympic El Qanah, Yassin Marei (own goal) 80' for Olympic El Qanah, Achraf Dari 90+3' for Al Ahly. On expected goals it finished 1.00–0.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Ahly a 26.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 31.3% after a win, 22.3% after a draw, 18.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.3%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

For Olympic El Qanah the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 10.1% going in: 17.4% after a win, 10.6% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.6%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 28% / 19%: the biggest move is Al Ahly's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Al Ahly win53%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Olympic El Qanah win19%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.