21 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Levante vs Athletic Club La Liga prediction & result

Valencia
Referee: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Levante 3-1 Athletic Club.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Levante, 29% draw, 32% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Levante at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Levante97%Draw3%Athletic Club0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Roger Bruguéassist: Daniel Requena Sánchez
20'
⚽Roger Brugué
22'
45'
🔁Johaneko Louis-Jeanout: Peio Canales
45'
🔁Mikel Jauregizarout: Iñaki Williams
61'
•Maroan Sannadi
67'
⚽Alex Berenguer (pen)
🔁Petar Ratkovout: Karl Etta Eyong
72'
🔁Iván Romeroout: Oriol Rey
72'
🔁Roger Bruguéout: Víctor García
72'
73'
Aymeric Laporte
Karl Etta Eyong
77'
Jeremy Toljan
80'
81'
🔁Iñigo Ruiz De Galarretaout: Aitor Paredes
81'
🔁Hugo Rincón Lumbrerasout: Alejandro Rego Mora
81'
🔁Robert Navarro Muñozout: Nico Williams
🔁Jeremy Toljanout: Nacho Pérez Gómez
83'
🔁Thiago Cruz Fernandezout: Paco Cortés
85'
90+6'
Yuri Berchiche
⚽Karl Etta Eyong
90+8'

Match stats — Levante vs Athletic Club

38%Possession62%
12Shots21
7On target4
3Corners9
2.05xG1.95

Goals against chances

Levante3 from 2.05 xGmore than the chances were worth
Athletic Club1 from 1.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Levante 4-4-2
  • 13M. RyanG
  • 22J. ToljanD
  • 2A. MandiD
  • 3Ifeanyi NdukweD
  • 23Manu SánchezD
  • 7BruguiM
  • 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
  • 6RequeM
  • 24T. FernándezM
  • 10P. RatkovF
  • 9Iván RomeroF
Substitutes
  • 14Jorge CabelloD
  • 20Oriol ReyM
  • 27Paco CortésF
  • 1Pablo CuñatG
  • 17Víctor GarcíaD
  • 11Yanis MusuayiF
  • 33M. SantosD
  • 16A. TapeD
  • 29Nacho PérezD
Coach: Luís Castro
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
  • 1Unai SimónG
  • 15Hugo RincónD
  • 5YerayD
  • 14Aymeric LaporteD
  • 17YuriD
  • 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
  • 18Mikel JauregizarM
  • 7Álex BerenguerM
  • 23Robert NavarroM
  • 31J. Louis-JeanM
  • 21Maroan SannadiF
Substitutes
  • 13Álex PadillaG
  • 6Beñat PradosM
  • 20Alejandro RegoM
  • 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
  • 22Nico SerranoF
  • 9I. WilliamsF
  • 10Nico WilliamsF
  • 12Jesús AresoD
  • 4Aitor ParedesD
Coach: E. Terzić

Form going into Levante vs Athletic Club

Levante

La Liga

  • D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026

Athletic Club

La Liga

  • D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Levante122551621-511
7Athletic Club114431511+416

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Levante vs Athletic Club

  • 8 February 2026Athletic Club 4–2 LevanteLa Liga
  • 29 November 2025Levante 0–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • 7 March 2022Athletic Club 3–1 LevanteLa Liga
  • 19 November 2021Levante 0–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • 4 March 2021Levante 1–2 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
  • 26 February 2021Levante 1–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga

The full Levante vs Athletic Club record →

Leading scorers: Levante and Athletic Club

Levante

GoalsAssists

  • Brugui51

Athletic Club

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Berenguer44

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Levante beat Athletic Club 3–1. The model had made a win for Levante its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Roger Brugué 20' for Levante, Roger Brugué 22' for Levante, Alex Berenguer (penalty) 67' for Athletic Club, Karl Etta Eyong 90+8' for Levante. Sent off: Aymeric Laporte (Athletic Club) 73'. On expected goals it finished 2.05–1.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Levante a 13.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.8% after a win, 14.3% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.8%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Levante v Athletic Club has moved

First published on 2 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 19 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Levante's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Levante win39%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Athletic Club win32%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.