28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result

Euroborg, Groningen
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Groningen, 24% draw, 22% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Groningen at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Rodrigo Guth
12'
⚽M. Ihattarenassist: L. Zeefuik
⚽D. van der Werffassist: J. Schreuders
19'
28'
⚽L. Zeefuikassist: E. Michut
🔁T. Landout: J. Ondrejka
64'
🔁B. Willumssonout: O. Zawada
64'
Jacob Ondrejka
65'
68'
🔁M. Ihattarenout: N. de Groot
69'
Justin Hubner
72'
⚽A. Descotteassist: E. Michut
80'
🔁S. Zandout: Y. Oukili
🔁W. Prinsout: T. Hernes
81'
81'
🔁R. Guthout: S. van Ottele
🔁D. van der Werffout: A. Nordin
82'
🔁M. Csingerout: N. Eggens
82'
•Jacob Ondrejka
84'
⚽J. Hubner (OG)
87'
Etienne Vaessen
88'
Travis Hernes
90+7'
90+1'
Édouard Michut
90+4'
🔁A. Descotteout: M. Gbemou

Match stats — Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard

68%Possession32%
22Shots9
2On target5
7Corners2
1.47xG0.88

Goals against chances

Groningen2 from 1.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fortuna Sittard3 from 0.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 14J. SchreudersD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 2W. PrinsD
  • 18T. LandM
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 17D. van der WerffM
  • 26T. van BergenM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 9B. WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 13L. StubljarG
  • 73D. ErdmanG
  • 12N. Brandis
  • 42J. MosselaarD
  • 15E. van der LaanD
  • 11J. OndrejkaF
  • 44J. DillemaM
  • 16A. NordinM
  • 7T. HernesM
Coach: Dick Lukkien
Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2
  • 31M. BranderhorstG
  • 12I. PintoD
  • 23P. BrittijnD
  • 3R. GuthD
  • 28J. HubnerD
  • 8J. DahlhausD
  • 52M. IhattarenM
  • 20E. MichutM
  • 22S. ZandM
  • 9A. DescotteF
  • 25L. ZeefuikF
Substitutes
  • 33KaylenG
  • 1L. KoopmansG
  • 6S. van OtteleD
  • 15N. de GrootD
  • 5Y. OukiliM
  • 36A. BahD
  • 38M. GbemouM
  • 39G. BuyukhanM
  • 44D. StockbrinkF
Coach: Danny Buijs

Form going into Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard

Groningen

  • L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
  • W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026

Fortuna Sittard

  • L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
  • W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Groningen62221213-18
7Fortuna Sittard63121214-210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard

  • 28 August 2026Groningen 2–3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 25 January 2026Groningen 1–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 25 October 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–2 GroningenEredivisie
  • 16 March 2025Groningen 1–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 26 October 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–0 GroningenEredivisie
  • 8 February 2024Groningen 0–0 Fortuna SittardKNVB Beker

Leading scorers: Groningen and Fortuna Sittard

Groningen

  • B. Willumsson4 goals
  • T. van Bergen3 goals2 assists

Fortuna Sittard

  • M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
  • L. Zeefuik3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.