Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Groningen, 24% draw, 22% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Groningen at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. VaessenG
- 14J. SchreudersD
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 2W. PrinsD
- 18T. LandM
- 8T. de JongeM
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 24P. ClementM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 13L. StubljarG
- 73D. ErdmanG
- 12N. Brandis
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 15E. van der LaanD
- 11J. OndrejkaF
- 44J. DillemaM
- 16A. NordinM
- 7T. HernesM
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12I. PintoD
- 23P. BrittijnD
- 3R. GuthD
- 28J. HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 20E. MichutM
- 22S. ZandM
- 9A. DescotteF
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 33KaylenG
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 15N. de GrootD
- 5Y. OukiliM
- 36A. BahD
- 38M. GbemouM
- 39G. BuyukhanM
- 44D. StockbrinkF
Form going into Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
Groningen
All competitions we cover
- L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
- W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026
- W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard
All competitions we cover
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
- D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
- 25 January 2026Groningen 1–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 25 October 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–2 GroningenEredivisie
- 16 March 2025Groningen 1–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 26 October 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 8 February 2024Groningen 0–0 Fortuna SittardKNVB Beker
Leading scorers: Groningen and Fortuna Sittard
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fortuna Sittard won 3–2 at Groningen. The model had leaned towards a win for Groningen at 54% and given a win for Fortuna Sittard 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Ihattaren 12' for Fortuna Sittard, D. van der Werff 19' for Groningen, L. Zeefuik 28' for Fortuna Sittard, A. Descotte 72' for Fortuna Sittard, J. Hubner (own goal) 87' for Groningen. On expected goals it finished 1.47–0.88.