29 August 2026, 16:45 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie prediction & result

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Full time5 – 2

Final score: AZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead Eagles.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% AZ Alkmaar, 23% draw, 18% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AZ Alkmaar at 59% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AZ Alkmaar99%Draw1%GO Ahead Eagles0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Kwakman
7'
22'
⚽V. Edvardsen
⚽R. Daalassist: D. Kwakman
35'
46'
🔁E. Flatakerout: S. I. Sigurdarson
⚽L. Schoutenassist: M. Chavez Garcia
49'
59'
🔁A. Sampstedout: E. Waayers
59'
🔁V. Edvardsenout: R. Margaret
🔁D. Kwakmanout: J. Clasie
64'
🔁Weslley Patatiout: C. Stengs
64'
⚽M. Chavez Garcia
68'
69'
🔁S. Tengstedtout: T. Baeten
🔁E. Dijkstraout: S. Maikuma
77'
🔁K. Smitout: A. Oufkir
77'
77'
🔁D. Jamesout: O. Sivertsen
🔁M. Chavez Garciaout: M. de Wit
83'
⚽R. Daalassist: C. Stengs
86'
90'
⚽M. Suray

Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles

52%Possession48%
20Shots9
8On target4
8Corners4
2.39xG1.82

Goals against chances

AZ Alkmaar5 from 2.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
GO Ahead Eagles2 from 1.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 4L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. Chavez GarciaD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 7Weslley PatatiM
  • 10K. SmitM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 71I. KaG
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
  • 34M. de WitD
  • 20A. NataliD
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 75H. de WitM
  • 24A. OufkirF
Coach: Leeroy Echteld
GO Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HaugG
  • 2A. SampstedD
  • 26J. DirksenD
  • 4J. KramerD
  • 5D. JamesD
  • 8E. LinthorstM
  • 21M. MeulensteenM
  • 10S. TengstedtM
  • 16V. EdvardsenM
  • 17M. SurayM
  • 29E. FlatakerF
Substitutes
  • 33N. VerdoniG
  • 30T. HullemanG
  • 6T. JukicD
  • 20E. WaayersD
  • 34Y. Salah RahmouniM
  • 35T. LantveldD
  • 18R. MargaretF
  • 23T. BaetenF
  • 31D. TijmanF
Coach: Joseph Oosting

Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles

AZ Alkmaar

  • W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026

GO Ahead Eagles

  • W3-1ADO Den Haag23 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Feyenoord16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2AZ Alkmaar6510176+1116
8GO Ahead Eagles62311513+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles

  • 29 August 2026AZ Alkmaar 5–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 23 April 2026GO Ahead Eagles 0–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 7 December 2025AZ Alkmaar 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 4 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles 0–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 21 April 2025AZ Alkmaar 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesKNVB Beker
  • 27 October 2024AZ Alkmaar 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie

Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles

AZ Alkmaar

  • R. Daal4 goals

GO Ahead Eagles

  • S. Tengstedt5 goals2 assists
  • V. Edvardsen3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.