29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Excelsior, 24% draw, 23% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Excelsior at 53% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Excelsior5%Draw92%Sparta Rotterdam3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Jens Toornstra
⚽A. Sliti
24'
Simon Janssen
28'
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
37'
39'
🔁R. van Cruijsenout: C. Terho
48'
⚽M. Zonneveldassist: M. van Bergen
🔁D. van Vianenout: E. da Silva Moreira
59'
🔁A. Slitiout: A. Jahanbakhsh
59'
🔁A. Thorsteinssonout: I. Silva Timas
67'
🔁D. Gardenout: N. Groen
67'
83'
🔁J. Toornstraout: A. Roaldsoy
83'
🔁M. van Bergenout: J. Ideho
🔁S. Janssenout: K. Bos
85'
89'
🔁J. Baasout: N. Verschuren
⚽N. Groenassist: I. Silva Timas
90'

Match stats — Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

43%Possession57%
14Shots10
4On target2
6Corners4
1.17xG0.97

Goals against chances

Excelsior2 from 1.17 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sparta Rotterdam1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Excelsior 4-3-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 3R. MeissenD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 6D. van VianenM
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 19D. Garden
  • 30A. ThorsteinssonF
Substitutes
  • 40T. HollaG
  • 5S. HenderikxD
  • 24G. CairoM
  • 2E. da Silva MoreiraF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 11A. JahanbakhshF
  • 28N. GroenF
Coach: Ruben den Uil
Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. BednarekG
  • 2L. MartesD
  • 3M. YoungD
  • 4B. Martins IndiD
  • 5B. KuipersD
  • 6J. BaasM
  • 8J. ToornstraM
  • 7R. van Cruijsen
  • 10S. MitoM
  • 11M. van BergenM
  • 9M. ZonneveldF
Substitutes
  • 30R. SuurG
  • 20P. KuiperG
  • 12B. ReithD
  • 14T. QuinteroD
  • 15G. VianelloD
  • 13N. VerschurenD
  • 16A. RoaldsoyM
  • 17C. TerhoF
  • 22J. IdehoF
Coach: Rogier Meijer

Form going into Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

Excelsior

  • L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026

Sparta Rotterdam

  • D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Excelsior6312137+610
12Sparta Rotterdam61231013-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

  • 29 August 2026Excelsior 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 17 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 14 September 2025Excelsior 0–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 17 February 2024Sparta Rotterdam 4–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 1 October 2023Excelsior 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 5 March 2023Excelsior 1–4 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

Leading scorers: Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam

Excelsior

  • D. Garden3 goals

Sparta Rotterdam

  • M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.