Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Excelsior, 24% draw, 23% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Excelsior at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 20L. HartjesM
- 8I. YegoianM
- 6D. van VianenM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 19D. Garden
- 30A. ThorsteinssonF
- 40T. HollaG
- 5S. HenderikxD
- 24G. CairoM
- 2E. da Silva MoreiraF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 23Y. FineyM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 28N. GroenF
- 1F. BednarekG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 6J. BaasM
- 8J. ToornstraM
- 7R. van Cruijsen
- 10S. MitoM
- 11M. van BergenM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 30R. SuurG
- 20P. KuiperG
- 12B. ReithD
- 14T. QuinteroD
- 15G. VianelloD
- 13N. VerschurenD
- 16A. RoaldsoyM
- 17C. TerhoF
- 22J. IdehoF
Form going into Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
All competitions we cover
- L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
- W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
- L0-1Feyenoord9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 17 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 14 September 2025Excelsior 0–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 17 February 2024Sparta Rotterdam 4–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 1 October 2023Excelsior 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 5 March 2023Excelsior 1–4 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Excelsior beat Sparta Rotterdam 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Excelsior at 53%. The goals: A. Sliti 24' for Excelsior, M. Zonneveld 48' for Sparta Rotterdam, N. Groen 90' for Excelsior. On expected goals it finished 1.17–0.97.