29 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result

Zwolle
Full time1 – 3

Final score: PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% PEC Zwolle, 25% draw, 46% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NEC Nijmegen at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PEC Zwolle0%Draw1%NEC Nijmegen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽T. Chery (pen)
23'
⚽T. Chery (pen)
•Sherel Constancio Floranus
39'
⚽K. Kostons (pen)
45'
46'
🔁D. Fonvilleout: A. Kabar
•Koen Kostons
58'
63'
Almugera Kabar
🔁T. Oostingout: G. Reiziger
64'
🔁E. Sorensenout: I. Cissoko
64'
67'
🔁C. Bischoffout: W. T. Willumsson
67'
🔁A. Tahauiout: E. Mor
70'
Dušan Tadić
⚽Koen Kostons (pen)
72'
73'
Tobias Storm
80'
🔁B. Nuytinckout: P. Schuurs
80'
🔁B. Linssenout: B. Pereira
83'
⚽P. Schuursassist: E. Mor
🔁T. Sommerout: O. Velanas
86'
Olivier Aertssen
90+3'

Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen

52%Possession48%
9Shots9
2On target4
6Corners7
1.98xG2.01

Goals against chances

PEC Zwolle1 from 1.98 xGless than the chances were worth
NEC Nijmegen3 from 2.01 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchendelaarG
  • 3O. AertssenD
  • 28S. GravesD
  • 24N. ViergeverD
  • 2S. FloranusD
  • 30R. ThomasM
  • 8T. SommerM
  • 11D. MbayoM
  • 25T. OostingM
  • 9E. SorensenM
  • 10K. KostonsF
Substitutes
  • 41D. VerduinG
  • 16T. de GraaffG
  • 4T. VelthuisD
  • 33D. van der HaarD
  • 34N. FichtingerM
  • 26J. Pereira da GamaM
  • 18O. VelanasM
  • 20G. ReizigerM
  • 37G. van der WalM
Coach: Henry Van Der Vegt
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-1-2
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 24D. FonvilleD
  • 19A. TahauiM
  • 35J. MonteiroM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 99C. BischoffM
  • 10D. TadicF
  • 9T. CheryF
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 36F. EntiusG
  • 73G. BrasD
  • 4P. SchuursD
  • 2B. PereiraD
  • 66A. KabarD
  • 8I. Hansen-AaroenM
  • 11W. T. WillumssonM
  • 32V. van CrooijM
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Form going into PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen

PEC Zwolle

  • W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Twente16 August 2026

NEC Nijmegen

  • W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16PEC Zwolle6114617-114
10NEC Nijmegen62131112-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen

  • 29 August 2026PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 24 January 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 25 October 2025PEC Zwolle 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 11 January 2025PEC Zwolle 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 29 October 2024NEC Nijmegen 4–3 PEC ZwolleKNVB Beker
  • 24 August 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.