PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% PEC Zwolle, 25% draw, 46% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
NEC Nijmegen at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 2S. FloranusD
- 30R. ThomasM
- 8T. SommerM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 25T. OostingM
- 9E. SorensenM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 41D. VerduinG
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 33D. van der HaarD
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 26J. Pereira da GamaM
- 18O. VelanasM
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 37G. van der WalM
- 1G. CrettazG
- 21T. StormD
- 17B. NuytinckD
- 24D. FonvilleD
- 19A. TahauiM
- 35J. MonteiroM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 99C. BischoffM
- 10D. TadicF
- 9T. CheryF
- 30B. LinssenF
- 12N. PolsterG
- 36F. EntiusG
- 73G. BrasD
- 4P. SchuursD
- 2B. PereiraD
- 66A. KabarD
- 8I. Hansen-AaroenM
- 11W. T. WillumssonM
- 32V. van CrooijM
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
PEC Zwolle
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
- L1-3away to Twente16 August 2026
- L0-2Ajax9 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt25 August 2026
- L1-3Bodo/Glimt19 August 2026
- W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026
- W2-1Olympiakos Piraeus11 August 2026
- L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
What these results say
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for NEC Nijmegen had three goals or more.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
- 24 January 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 25 October 2025PEC Zwolle 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 11 January 2025PEC Zwolle 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 29 October 2024NEC Nijmegen 4–3 PEC ZwolleKNVB Beker
- 24 August 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
The result against the call
NEC Nijmegen won 3–1 at PEC Zwolle. The model had made a win for NEC Nijmegen its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Chery (penalty) 5' for NEC Nijmegen, T. Chery (penalty) 23' for NEC Nijmegen, K. Kostons (penalty) 45' for PEC Zwolle, P. Schuurs 83' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 1.98–2.01.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.