18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result

Euroborg, Groningen
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Groningen, 27% draw, 25% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Groningen at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Groningen99%Draw1%PEC Zwolle0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Thom Van Bergenassist: David van der Werff
20'
28'
🔁Ibrahim Cissokoout: Elias Sörensen
⚽Jorg Schreuders
43'
61'
🔁Dylan Mbayoout: Gabriel Reiziger
61'
🔁Thijs Oostingout: Sydney van Hooijdonk
🔁Jacob Ondrejkaout: Tygo Land
66'
🔁Marco Renteout: Hans Hateboer
66'
⚽Tygo Landassist: David van der Werff
68'
79'
Sherel Floranus
79'
Koen Kostons
80'
🔁Koen Kostonsout: Gilles Van Der Wal
80'
🔁Olivier Aertssenout: jan burger
🔁Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonout: Alvin Vilhelm Valdemar Nordin
85'
🔁David van der Werffout: Nils Eggens
85'
🔁Mark Csingerout: Jesper Mosselaar
90'

Match stats — Groningen vs PEC Zwolle

52%Possession48%
17Shots9
7On target1
5Corners6

Line-ups

Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 14J. SchreudersD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 5M. RenteD
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 17D. van der WerffM
  • 26T. van BergenM
  • 11J. OndrejkaM
  • 9B. WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 13L. ŠtubljarG
  • 20Nils EggensF
  • 44Besnik MashukuM
  • 30P. BoevinkG
  • 53J. HallM
  • 33H. HateboerD
  • 18T. LandM
  • 42J. MosselaarD
  • 16A. NordinM
Coach: D. Lukkien
PEC Zwolle 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. SchendelaarG
  • 3O. AertssenD
  • 28S. GravesD
  • 24N. ViergeverD
  • 2S. FloranusD
  • 34N. FichtingerM
  • 11D. MbayoM
  • 25T. OostingM
  • 8T. SommerM
  • 22I. CissokoM
  • 10K. KostonsF
Substitutes
  • 6Jan BürgerD
  • 9E. SørensenF
  • 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
  • 20G. ReizigerM
  • 42Dylan RuwardD
  • 37Gilles van der WalM
  • 33D. van der HaarD
  • 17S. van HooijdonkF
  • 16T. de GraaffG
Coach: Henry van der Vegt

Form going into Groningen vs PEC Zwolle

Groningen

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
  • D2-2Twente6 September 2026
  • L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
  • L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
  • W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026

PEC Zwolle

All competitions we cover

  • L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
  • L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Twente16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Groningen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Groningen.
  • PEC Zwolle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • PEC Zwolle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • PEC Zwolle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Groningen124352928+115
13PEC Zwolle123361324-1112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle

  • 13 March 2026PEC Zwolle 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 23 November 2025Groningen 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 18 May 2025PEC Zwolle 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
  • 8 December 2024Groningen 0–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 5 August 2023PEC Zwolle 0–0 GroningenFriendlies Clubs

The full Groningen vs PEC Zwolle record →

Leading scorers: Groningen and PEC Zwolle

Groningen

GoalsAssists

  • B. Willumsson91
  • T. van Bergen83

PEC Zwolle

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Groningen beat PEC Zwolle 3–0. The model had made a win for Groningen its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Thom Van Bergen 20' for Groningen, Jorg Schreuders 43' for Groningen, Tygo Land 68' for Groningen.

How the call on Groningen v PEC Zwolle has moved

First published on 4 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Groningen's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Groningen win48%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. PEC Zwolle win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.