19 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result

Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Willem II 0-1 Fortuna Sittard.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Willem II, 29% draw, 32% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Willem II at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Willem II0%Draw5%Fortuna Sittard95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
•Ivo Pinto
Nathan Tjoe-A-On
19'
59'
🔁Ole Romenyout: Lequincio Zeefuik
Uriël van Aalst
64'
🔁Nathan Tjoe-A-Onout: Per van Loon
70'
🔁Eser Gürbüzout: Vito van Crooy
71'
Vito van Crooy
72'
79'
⚽Philip Brittijn
🔁Jaden Sloryout: Chido Obi
82'
🔁Tonny Vilhenaout: Thomas Verheydt
82'
83'
🔁Shiloh 't Zandout: Syb Van Ottele
83'
🔁Anthony Descotteout: Kristoffer Peterson
🔁Calvin Twigtout: Mats Lemmens
89'
90+3'
Ivo Pinto

Match stats — Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard

46%Possession54%
15Shots17
3On target3
5Corners3

Line-ups

Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. DelangheG
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 23M. DekkerD
  • 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 52T. VilhenaM
  • 50E. GürbüzM
  • 19Uriel van AalstM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 32V. van CrooijM
  • 22Per van LoonM
  • 21W. van der SteenG
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 2A. CiranniD
  • 14Jens MathijsenD
  • 17O. MartinF
  • 10J. SchuurmanM
  • 28T. VerheydtF
Coach: J. Stegeman
Fortuna Sittard 4-3-3
  • 31M. BranderhorstG
  • 12Ivo PintoD
  • 3Rodrigo GuthD
  • 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
  • 8J. DahlhausD
  • 23P. BrittijnM
  • 20É. MichutM
  • 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
  • 52M. IhattarenF
  • 9A. DescotteF
  • 10O. RomenyF
Substitutes
  • 25L. ZeefuikF
  • 6S. van OtteleD
  • 7K. PetersonF
  • 1L. KoopmansG
  • 33K. ReitmaierG
  • 38Moussa GbemouM
  • 15N. de GrootD
  • 35K. van BurgstedenM
  • 39Ganni BuyukhanM
Coach: D. Buijs

Form going into Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard

Willem II

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
  • D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
  • L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
  • D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
  • L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026

Fortuna Sittard

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
  • W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
  • L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
  • W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Willem II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fortuna Sittard conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Fortuna Sittard scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Willem II120391140-293
7Fortuna Sittard125522020020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard

  • 27 April 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 20 October 2024Willem II 0–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 13 March 2022Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 22 October 2021Willem II 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 16 May 2021Willem II 2–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie

The full Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard record →

The result against the call

Fortuna Sittard won 1–0 at Willem II. The model had leaned towards a win for Willem II at 39% and given a win for Fortuna Sittard 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Philip Brittijn 79' for Fortuna Sittard.

How the call on Willem II v Fortuna Sittard has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Willem II's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Willem II win39%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Fortuna Sittard win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.