Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 Heerenveen.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sparta Rotterdam, 28% draw, 28% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Rotterdam at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Line-ups
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 6J. BaasM
- 8Cedric HatenboerM
- 7C. TerhoM
- 10I. BabadiM
- 11Joel IdehoM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 30P. KuiperG
- 16Teo QuinteroD
- 12B. ReithD
- 18A. RoaldsøyM
- 21J. ToornstraM
- 14N. VerschurenD
- 22G. VianelloD
- 17Robin van CruijsenM
- 22B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 16M. LindayM
- 14L. SmansM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 36N. CourtensM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 17R. UldriķisF
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 41J. ScholtenD
- 11L. OyenF
- 44A. NoppertG
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 29L. MachineF
- 28H. PetrovD
- 21M. FarjiF
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
Heerenveen
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Rotterdam scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
- Heerenveen did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Heerenveen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
- 28 February 2026Heerenveen 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 14 December 2025Sparta Rotterdam 0–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 12 April 2025Sparta Rotterdam 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 26 October 2024Heerenveen 2–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 19 May 2024Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heerenveen won 4–0 at Sparta Rotterdam. The model had leaned towards a win for Sparta Rotterdam at 44% and given a win for Heerenveen 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nolhan courtens 28' for Heerenveen, Jacob Trenskow 43' for Heerenveen, Maxence Rivera 56' for Heerenveen, Marko Farji 75' for Heerenveen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.