Ajax vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 2-2 Excelsior.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Ajax, 29% draw, 28% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs Excelsior
Line-ups
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 24J. MokioM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 9K. DolbergF
- 10O. GloukhF
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 36D. JanseD
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 26M. PaesG
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 8I. YegoianM
- 3R. MeissenM
- 20L. HartjesM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 19D. GardenF
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 12K. BosF
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 28N. GroenF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 22O. TurayD
Form going into Ajax vs Excelsior
Ajax
All competitions we cover
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
- W5-3FC Sion27 August 2026
Excelsior
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
- W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
- W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
- L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
What these results say
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- Ajax won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
- Excelsior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Excelsior
- 1 February 2026Excelsior 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 22 November 2025Ajax 1–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 24 April 2024Ajax 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 19 August 2023Excelsior 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 29 January 2023Excelsior 1–4 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and Excelsior
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax and Excelsior drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ajax at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Julian Brandt 32' for Ajax, Lennard Hartjes 45+1' for Excelsior, Aymen sliti 62' for Excelsior, Tolu Arokodare 64' for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.