Independiente del Valle vs Aucas Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Independiente del Valle 2-1 Aucas.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Independiente del Valle, 21% draw, 17% Aucas — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Independiente del Valle at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. QuintanaG
- 13Daykol Alejandro Romero PadillaD
- 14M. CarabajalD
- 5R. SchunkeD
- 19L. LoorD
- 6J. AlcívarM
- 11M. PerellóM
- 28H. QuintanaM
- 10J. SornozaM
- 31Emerson Ivan Pata RodríguezM
- 9C. GonzálezF
- 15G. CortézD
- 18Steven Daniel Góngora PalaciosF
- 32J. MéndezM
- 8Y. OchoaM
- 70M. PeraltaG
- 56E. QuinteroM
- 57H. QuinteroM
- 99D. ReascoF
- 33Andy René Velasco GarcíaD
- 13Hamilton Emanuel Piedra OrdóñezG
- 28R. QuiñónezD
- 37A. ZovaD
- 14S. TapieroD
- 2S. MoralesD
- 31B. CarabalíD
- 21P. GuzmánM
- 6A. SpinaM
- 18Andrés David Mena MontenegroM
- 10A. PreciadoM
- 29Luis Aldair Arroyo CabezaF
- 17C. ZambranoF
- 57M. VeraF
- 5ThiagoM
- 30B. OyolaF
- 9R. Monti AzpiazuF
- 1I. ChavesG
- 4M. BurdissoD
- 11A. BolañosF
- 7J. AndradeF
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 37 | +44 | 84 |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
- 16 July 2026Aucas 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 14 March 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 AucasLiga Pro
- 19 July 2025Independiente del Valle 2–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 28 March 2025Aucas 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 1 September 2024Aucas 0–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 24 March 2024Independiente del Valle 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and Aucas
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- C. González111
- D. Reasco94
- M. Perelló84
Aucas
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente del Valle beat Aucas 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Independiente del Valle at 62%. The goals: Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo 33' for Aucas, Hugo Quintana 56' for Independiente del Valle, Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios 74' for Independiente del Valle. On expected goals it finished 0.15–0.62.
How the call on Independiente del Valle v Aucas has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 62% / 21% / 17%: the biggest move is Independiente del Valle's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Independiente del Valle win62%▲ +7
- Draw21%▼ −3
- Aucas win17%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.