Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Guayaquil City FC 0-0 Libertad.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Guayaquil City FC, 26% draw, 36% Libertad — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Guayaquil City FC at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. NapaG
- 17J. AyoviD
- 3Y. RodríguezD
- 4E. LadinesD
- 6R. AriasD
- 14D. ArroyoM
- 80P. GonzálezM
- 70P. MancillaM
- 23M. BolañosM
- 11E. MeroF
- 21D. DorregarayF
- 33R. CaicedoD
- 7J. CaicedoF
- 28J. VivarF
- 20S. LaurinoM
- 19A. NaulaM
- 16J. OrdóñezM
- 9M. PalmaF
- 12Rodrigo Ramiro Perea SalazarG
- 30J. PinosG
- 12D. CabezasG
- 17E. PattaD
- 6B. CaicedoD
- 5C. GruezoD
- 19O. QuiñónezD
- 20J. RodríguezD
- 70Vilinton Germán Branda MerlínM
- 30J. BravoM
- 80X. PinedaM
- 9E. CaicedoM
- 10G. CortézF
- 63C. ValenciaM
- 7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela QuiñónezM
- 25M. LucasD
- 23J. GuisamanoM
- 49D. CoronelF
- 33A. ChéreF
- 8Stick Carlos Castro PalmaM
- 11H. BatallaF
- 52A. BaoG
Form going into Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Emelec25 October 2026
- L0-4away to Libertad17 October 2026
- W3-2Emelec10 October 2026
Libertad
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Leones del Norte25 October 2026
- W4-0Guayaquil City FC17 October 2026
- W3-0Leones del Norte9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
- 17 October 2026Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 15 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 2–2 LibertadLiga Pro
- 21 April 2026Libertad 0–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 10 October 2023Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 6 May 2023Guayaquil City FC 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Guayaquil City FC and Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
GoalsAssists
- E. Mero135
- D. Dorregaray92
Libertad
GoalsAssists
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín132
- G. Cortéz65
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guayaquil City FC and Libertad drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Guayaquil City FC at 38% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.65–0.49.
How the call on Guayaquil City FC v Libertad has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is Guayaquil City FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Guayaquil City FC win38%▲ +4
- Draw26%=
- Libertad win36%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.