2 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Referee: Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Orense SC 1-1 Tecnico Universitario.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Orense SC, 25% draw, 24% Tecnico Universitario — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Orense SC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orense SC5%Draw92%Tecnico Universitario3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
E. Mesa
🔁Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyesout: Andrés Parrales
45'
Sixto Mina
48'
52'
⚽Luis Estupiñanassist: Johan Bocanegra
57'
🔁Johan Bocanegraout: Adrian Cela
🔁Gabriel Achilierout: Nixon Molina
64'
🔁Renny Jaramilloout: B. Quiñonez
64'
🔁Valentín Burgoaout: Ángel Mena
64'
70'
🔁Diego Armasout: Carlos Cuero
🔁Pedro Velascoout: J. Valencia
72'
77'
A. Morales
82'
🔁Cesar Castanoout: Anthony Castilo
82'
🔁Luis Estupiñanout: Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta
⚽W. Herreraassist: Nixon Molina
86'

Match stats — Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario

59%Possession41%
14Shots10
5On target5
5Corners1
1.03xG0.54

Goals against chances

Orense SC1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tecnico Universitario1 from 0.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orense SC 3-4-3
  • 12R. SilvaG
  • 4M. QuiñonezD
  • 24G. AchilierD
  • 3Sixto Romario Mina ArroyoD
  • 31P. VelascoM
  • 21G. RostagnoM
  • 25R. JaramilloM
  • 15B. CaicedoM
  • 19Michael Alessandro Bermúdez ReyesF
  • 11A. HerreraF
  • 30V. BurgoaF
Substitutes
  • 51C. OrtízM
  • 57S. MairongoM
  • 13Á. MenaF
  • 26N. MolinaM
  • 22J. OrtizG
  • 77B. ViñánD
  • 88J. ValenciaF
  • 45O. QuiñonezD
  • 2B. QuiñonezD
Coach: J. Buch
Tecnico Universitario 4-4-2
  • 12Ayrton MoralesG
  • 23E. MesaD
  • 53Rafael Francisco Chila MaciasD
  • 13J. AnayaD
  • 85Y. ArceD
  • 10J. BocanegraM
  • 70C. CastañoM
  • 33J. MajaoM
  • 25B. DelgadoM
  • 7L. EstupiñánF
  • 8D. ArmasF
Substitutes
  • 19Anthony CastiloF
  • 1S. RazzetoG
  • 14B. OñaM
  • 5S. MenaD
  • 9H. GuardiaF
  • 79C. CueroD
  • 4Luis Mario Cordova MinaD
  • 29A. CelaM
  • 67M. CarrascoM
Coach: Francisco Usúcar

Form going into Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario

Orense SC

Liga Pro

  • W4-0Delfin SC24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Mushuc Runa SC19 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026

Tecnico Universitario

Liga Pro

  • W3-0Mushuc Runa SC26 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Deportivo Cuenca16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Orense SC36109174353-1039
15Tecnico Universitario36114213549-1437

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario

  • 7 July 2026Orense SC 1–2 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 28 February 2026Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 8 July 2025Tecnico Universitario 1–2 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 11 March 2025Orense SC 2–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 10 November 2024Orense SC 0–2 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 21 May 2024Tecnico Universitario 1–0 Orense SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Orense SC and Tecnico Universitario

Orense SC

GoalsAssists

  • A. Herrera123

Tecnico Universitario

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Orense SC and Tecnico Universitario drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Orense SC at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Estupiñan 52' for Tecnico Universitario, W. Herrera 86' for Orense SC. On expected goals it finished 1.03–0.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orense SC a 14.7% chance to win the league: 19.5% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 5.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.1%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

For Tecnico Universitario the question was the chance to win the league, 2.7% going in: 6.8% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.0%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.