3 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Mushuc Runa SC 2-3 Manta FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Mushuc Runa SC, 25% draw, 22% Manta FC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mushuc Runa SC at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mushuc Runa SC5%Draw92%Manta FC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nazareno Bazán
4'
9'
⚽Alexander Medina
Franklin Carabali
22'
40'
José Monaga
45'
🔁José Monagaout: Josué Martin Chala Alomia
🔁Bryan Corozoout: Renso Tufino
45'
50'
⚽Jostin Almanassist: Felix Alejandro Zambrano Santizaba
🔁Lucas Maximiliano·Lemos Mayuncaldiout: Jackson Alexander González Simisterra
58'
🔁Nicolás Davilaout: Arnaldo Zambrano
58'
58'
🔁Jose Enrique Angulo Caicedoout: Ángel Ledesma
58'
🔁Robert Burbanoout: Juan Nazareno
67'
🔁Jostin Almanout: M. Valencia
Bryan Corozo
72'
🔁Nazareno Bazánout: Elian Caicedo
73'
🔁Jefferson Caicedoout: Derlys Ariel Gómez Merino
73'
⚽Elian Caicedoassist: Cristopher Angulo
74'
80'
🔁Walter Chaláout: J. Vergés
90'
Ángel Ledesma
90+3'
⚽Ángel Ledesma (pen)
90+3'
•J. Vergés
Jefferson Caicedo
90+5'
José Hernández
90+8'
90+9'
⚽J. Vergés (pen)
90+13'
J. Vergés

Match stats — Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC

63%Possession37%
26Shots11
10On target5
9Corners2
2.67xG1.99

Goals against chances

Mushuc Runa SC2 from 2.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Manta FC3 from 1.99 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC 4-1-4-1
  • 42W. PabónG
  • 99Cristopher Adonis Angulo CaicedoD
  • 30F. CarabalíD
  • 50J. CusmeD
  • 33M. HernándezD
  • 23L. LemosM
  • 28M. PereaM
  • 5Esteban Nicolás Dávila AlarcónM
  • 19B. CorozoM
  • 61J. CaicedoM
  • 11N. BazánF
Substitutes
  • 4Ronny Alfonso Biojo PreciadoD
  • 22J. CollaguazoG
  • 2J. FlorD
  • 18J. GonzalezM
  • 52D. MerinoM
  • 37J. QuiñonesD
  • 9R. TufinoM
  • 8A. ZambranoM
  • 14E. CaicedoF
Coach: P. Vélez
Manta FC 4-4-2
  • 12F. ZambranoG
  • 23A. MedinaD
  • 4J. NazarenoD
  • 24O. MoscarelliD
  • 25J. MonagaD
  • 7Walter Leodán Chalá VásquezM
  • 5B. RamírezM
  • 6J. JiménezM
  • 10R. BurbanoM
  • 17José Enrique Angulo CaicedoF
  • 19J. AlmanF
Substitutes
  • 20Josué ChalaM
  • 1W. ChávezG
  • 29M. HurtadoM
  • 28Á. LedesmaM
  • 70J. NazarenoM
  • 52J. RialpeM
  • 27Jefferson Alberto Troya VeraM
  • 8M. ValenciaF
  • 55J. VergésM
Coach: Eduardo Carvajal Burgos Javier

Form going into Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC

Mushuc Runa SC

Liga Pro

  • L0-3away to Tecnico Universitario26 October 2026
  • D1-1Orense SC19 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026

Manta FC

Liga Pro

  • L0-2Deportivo Cuenca24 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Delfin SC18 October 2026
  • W1-0Tecnico Universitario10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mushuc Runa SC361013134350-743
16Manta FC3696212752-2533

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC

  • 1 August 2026Manta FC 1–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 11 April 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 8 November 2025Manta FC 3–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 25 October 2025Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 30 August 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Manta FCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Mushuc Runa SC and Manta FC

Mushuc Runa SC

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.

Manta FC

GoalsAssists

  • José Enrique Angulo Caicedo70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Manta FC won 3–2 at Mushuc Runa SC. The model had leaned towards a win for Mushuc Runa SC at 53% and given a win for Manta FC 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Nazareno Bazán 4' for Mushuc Runa SC, Alexander Medina 9' for Manta FC, Jostin Alman 50' for Manta FC, Elian Caicedo 74' for Mushuc Runa SC, J. Vergés (penalty) 90+9' for Manta FC. On expected goals it finished 2.67–1.99.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mushuc Runa SC a 33.4% chance to win the league: 41.9% after a win, 23.7% after a draw, 19.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.1%, 14.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.