Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Gwangju FC, 28% draw, 41% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Line-ups
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 4T. van GrunsvenD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 17João PedroD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 9Ha Seung-UnM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 6Ahn Young-KyuD
- 16Jung Ji-HunM
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 1Kim Kyeong-MinG
- 3Lee Min-GiD
- 88Moon Min-seoM
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 37Lee Yong-JickM
- 21Kim Jong-SukM
- 51Ahn Joon-SooG
- 2Min Kyeong-hyeonD
- 45Byeon Jun-SooD
- 5Kim Min-KyuD
- 33Park Jin-SeongD
- 50Kang Ju-HyeokM
- 55Park Tae-JunM
- 56Lee Kang-HyunM
- 48Hong Yun-SangM
- 47Lee Sang-HeonF
- 49M. KangF
- 57Jeong Jae-MinF
- 21Kim In-GyunF
- 62Kim Jin-HoD
- 41Park Man-HoG
- 44Park Min-SeoD
- 53Roh Kyung-HoM
- 54Yoon Jae-SeokD
- 68Heo YoolF
- 46Chung Ma-HoM
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gwangju FC
K League 1
- W3-0away to Bucheon FC 199524 October 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen18 October 2026
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1
- L1-2Daejeon Citizen24 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Seoul18 October 2026
- L0-1FC Anyang10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 6 September 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–2 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 22 July 2026Gwangju FC 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 17 March 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 22 July 2025Gwangju FC 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 5 May 2025Gwangju FC 1–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 16 March 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kim In-gyun 64' for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, John Iredale 76' for Gwangju FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.