Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Pohang Steelers 1-1 Jeju United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Pohang Steelers, 30% draw, 38% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Jeju United FC at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC
Line-ups
- 21Hwang In-JaeG
- 17Shin Kwang-HoonD
- 4Jeon Min-GwangD
- 20Park Chan-YongD
- 13Kang Min-JunM
- 11Juninho RochaM
- 8Kim Seung-HoM
- 16Kim Dong-JinM
- 77WandersonM
- 9An Jae-JunF
- 25Jorge LuizF
- 18Cho Sang-HyeokF
- 22K. Gwang-wonM
- 33Jo Sung-WookD
- 37Jung Han-MinF
- 3Ye-Sung KimD
- 40Ki Sung-YuengM
- 31K. NishiyaM
- 10J. TranziskaF
- 1Yun Pyeong-GookG
- 1Kim Dong-JunG
- 47Min-jae ParkD
- 2Tobias FigueiredoD
- 41Kim Jae-WooD
- 40Kim Ryun-SeongD
- 22E. ÇinariM
- 33Park Su-BinM
- 8Lee Chang-MinM
- 94Emerson NeguebaM
- 18Kim Sin-JinF
- 7Chang-Jun ParkF
- 24Choi Byung-WookM
- 81Heo Ja-UngG
- 71Kim Tae-HwanD
- 6Gi-min KwonD
- 23Rim Chang-WooD
- 11Shin Sang-EunF
- 13Chung WoonD
- 55Dong-hwi KangM
- 30Bon-Seo GuF
Form going into Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC
Pohang Steelers
K League 1
- D2-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC24 October 2026
- D0-0FC Anyang18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Incheon United9 October 2026
Jeju United FC
K League 1
- L1-3away to Incheon United24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Jeonbuk Motors18 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 44 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC
- 25 August 2026Jeju United FC 1–2 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 18 July 2026Jeju United FC 2–1 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 11 April 2026Pohang Steelers 0–2 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 21 September 2025Pohang Steelers 1–0 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 21 June 2025Pohang Steelers 2–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 20 April 2025Jeju United FC 2–0 Pohang SteelersK League 1
Leading scorers: Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC
Pohang Steelers
GoalsAssists
- Juninho Rocha41
Jeju United FC
GoalsAssists
- Emerson Negueba62
- Lee Kun-Hee41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Jeju United FC at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Emerson Negueba 31' for Jeju United FC, Wanderson Oliveira (penalty) 45+10' for Pohang Steelers.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pohang Steelers a 8.5% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 20.0% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.7%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.
For Jeju United FC the question was the chance to finish top of the Championship Group, 75.1% going in: 89.3% after a win, 75.3% after a draw, 58.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 75.3%.
Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.