Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 5-1 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Vancouver Whitecaps, 25% draw, 21% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vancouver Whitecaps at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 25R. GauldM
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 13T. MüllerF
- 63Johnny SelemaniF
- 22K. PokuF
- 7C. SabalyF
- 6R. PrisoM
- 4R. VeselinovićD
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 70Rui ModestoM
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 16A. RoldanD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5N. ToloD
- 37S. BrunellM
- 7C. RoldanM
- 27J. FerreiraM
- 11A. RusnákM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 8C. ClarkM
- 24S. FreiG
- 90S. GomezM
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 35Antino LopezD
- 4R. SailorD
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 31H. DotsonM
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer
- W4-1San Diego29 October 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Austin18 October 2026
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer
- L0-1Houston Dynamo29 October 2026
- D2-2away to San Diego25 October 2026
- D1-1CF Montreal18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
- 17 August 2026Seattle Sounders 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 19 March 2026Seattle Sounders 2–1 Vancouver WhitecapsCONCACAF Champions League
- 13 March 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3 Seattle SoundersCONCACAF Champions League
- 28 September 2025Seattle Sounders 2–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 9 June 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vancouver Whitecaps beat Seattle Sounders 5–1. The model had made a win for Vancouver Whitecaps its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Brian White 1' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Ryan Gauld 9' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Mathías Laborda 43' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Brian White 53' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Jordan Morris 62' for Seattle Sounders, Aleksa Cvetkovic 69' for Vancouver Whitecaps. On expected goals it finished 2.47–1.26.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Seattle Sounders a 79.5% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.8% after a win, 94.9% after a draw, 68.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.8%, 10.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.