1 November 2026, 21:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result

Geodis Park, Nashville
Referee: Sergii Demianchuk
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Nashville SC 3-2 New York Red Bulls.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Nashville SC, 22% draw, 13% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nashville SC at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Cade Cowell (pen)
25'
Sekou Kone
34'
⚽Julian Hallassist: Adri Mehmeti
39'
🔁Cameron Harperout: Rafael Mosquera
40'
⚽Rafael Mosqueraassist: Cade Cowell
⚽Tim Parker (OG)
45'
45+2'
Jorge Ruvalcaba
59'
🔁Cade Cowellout: Mijahir Jiménez
🔁Patrick Yazbekout: Edvard Sandvik Tagseth
67'
🔁matthew corcoranout: Bryan Acosta
67'
⚽Julian Bazan (OG)
78'
•Cristian Espinoza
80'
🔁Elias Saadout: Warren Madrigal
82'
89'
🔁Sekou Koneout: David Ruiz
89'
🔁Rafael Mosqueraout: Connor Faello
89'
🔁Jorge Ruvalcabaout: Emil Forsberg
⚽Sam Surridgeassist: Cristian Espinoza
90+1'
🔁Cristian Espinozaout: Shakur Mohammed
90+3'
🔁Andy Najarout: josh bauer
90+3'

Match stats — Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls

61%Possession39%
21Shots14
7On target4
12Corners3
2.65xG2.93

Goals against chances

Nashville SC3 from 2.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
New York Red Bulls2 from 2.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nashville SC 4-3-3
  • 99B. SchwakeG
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 8P. YazbekM
  • 16M. CorcoranM
  • 11E. SaadM
  • 7C. EspinozaF
  • 10H. MukhtarF
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. WillisG
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 19A. MuylM
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 41W. MadrigalF
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 6B. AcostaM
Coach: B. Callaghan
New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
  • 34E. HorvathG
  • 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
  • 26T. ParkerD
  • 14J. BazánD
  • 59D. PadelfordD
  • 15A. MehmetiM
  • 60S. KoneM
  • 11J. RuvalcabaM
  • 7C. CowellF
  • 16J. HallF
  • 17C. HarperF
Substitutes
  • 45C. FaelloD
  • 10E. ForsbergM
  • 91M. JimenezF
  • 1A. MarcucciG
  • 77J. McCarthyG
  • 79R. MosqueraF
  • 8D. RuízM
  • 37M. SofoF
  • 56M. Dos SantosD
Coach: Michael Bradley

Form going into Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls

Nashville SC

Major League Soccer

  • D0-0Philadelphia Union29 October 2026
  • W2-0away to CF Montreal24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes18 October 2026

New York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer

  • L2-3away to New England Revolution28 October 2026
  • W2-0Inter Miami24 October 2026
  • L0-2Toronto FC17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Nashville SC3423837125+4677
10New York Red Bulls34126164862-1442

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls

  • 19 August 2026New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 May 2025Nashville SC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 2 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 June 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 24 February 2024Nashville SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 22 October 2023Nashville SC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge211
  • H. Mukhtar167

New York Red Bulls

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nashville SC beat New York Red Bulls 3–2. The model had made a win for Nashville SC its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Julian Hall 34' for New York Red Bulls, Rafael Mosquera 40' for New York Red Bulls, Tim Parker (own goal) 45' for Nashville SC, Julian Bazan (own goal) 78' for Nashville SC, Sam Surridge 90+1' for Nashville SC. On expected goals it finished 2.65–2.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York Red Bulls a 7.4% chance to finish in the top nine: 40.7% after a win, 15.4% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 67% / 21% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 65% / 22% / 13%: the biggest move is Nashville SC's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Nashville SC win65%▼ −2
  2. Draw22%▲ +1
  3. New York Red Bulls win13%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.