Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gwangju FC 0-1 Jeju United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gwangju FC, 27% draw, 36% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gwangju FC at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC
Line-ups
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 37Ri Yong-jikD
- 2Jang Seok-HwanD
- 17Joao PedroD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 9Ha Seung-UnM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 1Kim Kyeong-minG
- 19Ahn Hyeok-JuF
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 7E. SaitoskiM
- 24Y. Kim
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 16Joung Ji-hunM
- 11H. FridjonssonF
- 1Kim Dong-JunG
- 47Park Min-jaeD
- 2T. FigueiredoD
- 3J. CelestineD
- 13Jeong WoonD
- 33Park Su-binM
- 5ItaloM
- 20M. JangM
- 94Emerson NeguebaM
- 11Shin Sang-EunF
- 9Matheus AiasF
- 81J. HeoG
- 4Heo Kang-JunD
- 17Yu In-SooD
- 41Kim Jae-WooD
- 88Jo In-jungD
- 7Park Chang-JunF
- 24Choi Byung-wookM
- 39Kim Jae-minM
- 18Kim Shin-JinF
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC
Gwangju FC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC6 September 2026
- L2-5FC Seoul30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Gangwon FC26 August 2026
- L0-1Incheon United23 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
Jeju United FC
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Daejeon Citizen30 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers25 August 2026
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 August 2026
- W2-0FC Anyang15 August 2026
What these results say
- Gwangju FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Jeju United FC
GoalsAssists
- Emerson Negueba62
- Lee Kun-Hee41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Jeju United FC won 1–0 at Gwangju FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Gwangju FC at 37% and given a win for Jeju United FC 36%. The goal: Matheus Aias 63' for Jeju United FC.
How the call on Gwangju FC v Jeju United FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Gwangju FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Gwangju FC win37%▲ +4
- Draw27%=
- Jeju United FC win36%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.