CF Montreal vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: CF Montreal 1-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% CF Montreal, 31% draw, 32% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
CF Montreal at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Montreal vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. BrezaG
- 3B. CeballosD
- 5B. CraigD
- 4B. VeraD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 22V. LoturiM
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 10A. SanchezM
- 17D. SealyM
- 14D. RiosF
- 31T. GillierG
- 27D. BugajD
- 24E. MoralesD
- 29O. EscobarF
- 6S. PietteM
- 21F. HerbersF
- 23N. StreitM
- 35O. Graham-RoacheF
- 18G. SynchukM
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 16P. BielM
- 28D. DianiM
- 11L. AbadaF
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 10A. Saint-MaximinF
- 21T. MillerG
- 4A. PrivettD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 35W. ClearyD
- 13B. BronicoM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 20B. CoulibalyM
- 25T. SmallsF
- 9I. ToklomatiF
Form going into CF Montreal vs Charlotte
CF Montreal
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
- D1-1DC United15 August 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
- W3-1DC United22 August 2026
- D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026
- W3-1Columbus Crew15 August 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 26 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 66 | 51 | +15 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Charlotte
- 27 September 2025Charlotte 1–4 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025CF Montreal 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2024Charlotte 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024CF Montreal 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 15 July 2023CF Montreal 2–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Charlotte
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charlotte won 2–1 at CF Montreal. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Montreal at 37% and given a win for Charlotte 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Rios 34' for CF Montreal, L. Abada 37' for Charlotte, I. Toklomati 81' for Charlotte. On expected goals it finished 1.29–1.31.
How the call on CF Montreal v Charlotte has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is CF Montreal's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- CF Montreal win37%▼ −5
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Charlotte win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.