9 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

CF Montreal vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result

Saputo Stadium, Montreal
Full time1 – 2

Final score: CF Montreal 1-2 Charlotte.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% CF Montreal, 31% draw, 32% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CF Montreal at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Montreal0%Draw4%Charlotte96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
🔁A. Goodwinout: I. Toklomati
⚽D. Riosassist: L. Petrasso
34'
37'
⚽L. Abadaassist: A. Saint-Maximin
V. Loturi
45+4'
🔁W. Carmonaout: G. Synchuk
64'
🔁D. Sealyout: N. Streit
65'
68'
🔁L. de la Torreout: B. Bronico
68'
🔁L. Abadaout: R. Aloko
68'
D. Schnegg
🔁B. Ceballosout: D. Bugaj
75'
M. Longstaff
81'
81'
⚽I. Toklomatiassist: D. Schnegg
🔁D. Riosout: O. Graham-Roache
86'
🔁B. Veraout: E. Morales
86'
88'
🔁A. Saint-Maximinout: M. Agyemang

Match stats — CF Montreal vs Charlotte

58%Possession42%
17Shots13
5On target4
11Corners3
1.29xG1.31

Goals against chances

CF Montreal1 from 1.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
Charlotte2 from 1.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Montreal 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. BrezaG
  • 3B. CeballosD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 4B. VeraD
  • 13L. PetrassoD
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 16W. CarmonaM
  • 10A. SanchezM
  • 17D. SealyM
  • 14D. RiosF
Substitutes
  • 31T. GillierG
  • 27D. BugajD
  • 24E. MoralesD
  • 29O. EscobarF
  • 6S. PietteM
  • 21F. HerbersF
  • 23N. StreitM
  • 35O. Graham-RoacheF
  • 18G. SynchukM
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
Charlotte 4-3-3
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 3T. ReamD
  • 23D. SchneggD
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 16P. BielM
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 11L. AbadaF
  • 7A. GoodwinF
  • 10A. Saint-MaximinF
Substitutes
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 35W. ClearyD
  • 13B. BronicoM
  • 37R. AlokoF
  • 20B. CoulibalyM
  • 25T. SmallsF
  • 9I. ToklomatiF
Coach: Dean Smith

Form going into CF Montreal vs Charlotte

CF Montreal

  • L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
  • L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
  • D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
  • D1-1DC United15 August 2026

Charlotte

  • D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
  • W3-1DC United22 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026
  • W3-1Columbus Crew15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Charlotte

  • 9 September 2026CF Montreal 1–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 27 September 2025Charlotte 1–4 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 12 April 2025CF Montreal 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 5 October 2024Charlotte 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 14 September 2024CF Montreal 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 15 July 2023CF Montreal 2–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Charlotte

CF Montreal

  • P. Owusu13 goals6 assists

Charlotte

  • Pep Biel11 goals6 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.