29 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Hammarby FF vs Sirius Allsvenskan prediction & result

3Arena, Stockholm
Referee: Glenn Nyberg
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Hammarby FF 2-0 Sirius.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Hammarby FF, 24% draw, 24% Sirius — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hammarby FF at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hammarby FF99%Draw1%Sirius0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

ibrahima fofana breze
5'
⚽Victor Lind (pen)
21'
Tesfaldet Tekie
46'
⚽Paulos Abrahamassist: Hampus Skoglund
51'
59'
🔁Charlie Nildénout: N. Jönsson
64'
Mohamed Soumah
64'
N. Jönsson
🔁Frank Junior Adjeiout: Oscar Johansson
71'
🔁Montader Madjedout: Nahir Besara
80'
🔁Hampus Skoglundout: Victor Eriksson
80'
80'
🔁Zalán Vancsaout: Ake Andersson
83'
Marcus Lindberg
ibrahima fofana breze
83'
🔁Tesfaldet Tekieout: Waylon Renecke
84'
87'
🔁Melker Heierout: Simon Sandberg

Match stats — Hammarby FF vs Sirius

62%Possession38%
13Shots15
4On target5
10Corners8
1.63xG2.15

Goals against chances

Hammarby FF2 from 1.63 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sirius0 from 2.15 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hammarby FF 4-2-3-1
  • 1W. HahnG
  • 2E. SkoglundD
  • 6I. FofanaD
  • 3F. WintherD
  • 16N. PerssonD
  • 8M. KarlssonM
  • 5T. TekieM
  • 26M. MadjedM
  • 28F. AdjeiM
  • 9V. LindM
  • 7P. AbrahamF
Substitutes
  • 20N. BesaraM
  • 4V. ErikssonD
  • 27F. JakobssonG
  • 11O. JohanssonM
  • 30S. KebbehF
  • 21Sourou KoneM
  • 42O. MoczarnyM
  • 24W. ReneckeD
  • 31O. Steinke BranbyD
Coach: H. Rydström
Sirius 4-2-3-1
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 2Mohamed SoumahD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 6M. LindbergM
  • 7J. PerssonM
  • 21C. NildénM
  • 11I. BjerkeboM
  • 30Z. VancsaF
Substitutes
  • 20V. EkströmD
  • 17N. JönssonF
  • 8Matthias NarteyM
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 29Ake AnderssonF
  • 25O. AdinduF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark

Form going into Hammarby FF vs Sirius

Hammarby FF

Allsvenskan

  • W2-0away to Mjallby AIF25 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Halmstad18 October 2026

Sirius

Allsvenskan

  • L1-2AIK Stockholm24 October 2026
  • D2-2IF Elfsborg18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Hammarby FF2818466023+3758
2Sirius2818465835+2358

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs Sirius

  • 13 April 2026Sirius 2–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 22 March 2026Hammarby FF 2–2 SiriusSvenska Cupen
  • 24 August 2025Sirius 3–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 14 May 2025Hammarby FF 3–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 26 October 2024Sirius 0–3 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 26 May 2024Hammarby FF 3–0 SiriusAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Hammarby FF and Sirius

Hammarby FF

GoalsAssists

  • P. Abraham174
  • V. Lind1013
  • M. Madjed82

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • I. Bjerkebo157
  • R. Ure152

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hammarby FF beat Sirius 2–0. The model had made a win for Hammarby FF its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Victor Lind (penalty) 21' for Hammarby FF, Paulos Abraham 51' for Hammarby FF. Sent off: ibrahima fofana breze (Hammarby FF) 83'. On expected goals it finished 1.63–2.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hammarby FF a 17.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 26.7% after a win, 6.8% after a draw, 1.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.7%, 9 points higher than before the match.

For Sirius the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 75.5% going in: 96.9% after a win, 85.8% after a draw, 65.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.0%, 10.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hammarby FF v Sirius has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 50% / 24% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Hammarby FF's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Hammarby FF win52%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%=
  3. Sirius win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.